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This kind of unprecedented weather leaves even seasoned researchers scratching their heads. "We're still trying to figure out what is happening here," says Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist with the Colorado-based Snow and Ice Data Center. "The sea ice is so low there in part because it's just been so darn warm in the Arctic this winter."
Of course, there's a huge difference between weather and climate. The Earth is a vast and chaotic system, and heat waves as well as cold snaps can happen anywhere. But how often they take place can give insight into general patterns.
"The ridiculously warm temperatures in the Arctic during October and November this year are off the charts over our 68 years of measurements," Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at Rutgers University who studies the Arctic, told Climate Central.
Climate scientists have measured that snow and ice reflect fully 80 per cent of the sunlight that hits it. The Arctic is no exception, with the ice caps reflecting huge amounts of light and heat back out into space. Sea water, by way of comparison, only reflects a quarter of that.
Scientists call this kind of cycle a "feedback loop," and have been sounding the alarm bell for years. Dr Moore isn't optimistic. "There's more and more evidence that the Arctic, especially, is warming quite dramatically and that we should expect to see more of these events," he told the Washington Post. Of course, other climate events prevent the trends from being as clear as they could be. We're coming off the end of an El Niño cycle, but if the analysis of one paper last year proves accurate, it's only been helping keep things cool up north.
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