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Russia leaves rates steady after shock hike

Russia’s central bank voted Friday against a second hike in borrowing costs in three weeks, while leaving room for a future increase to temper inflation amid recent spikes in the price of food.

The board of governors voted “on the basis of inflation risks and the economic growth outlook” to leave the main interest rate unchanged at the current 8.25 percent.

In a shock decision on September 13, Russia’s central bank voted to raise rates from 8.0 percent despite an economic slowdown as food prices began to push up overall inflation.

The world’s major economies have thus far resisted boosting interest rates in the face of rising inflation because of the broad-based slowdown in global growth.

But Russia’s central bank said it would continue to closely “monitor inflation risks, including world price trends on food” and called the situation with prices troubling.

The 12-month headline inflation rate jumped to 6.6 percent in September — well above the original 6.0 percent target and a pace forcing the government to lift its annual expectations by a full percentage point.

It also noted a continued acceleration of the base inflation figure that discounts for fluctuation in the price of food and oil.

“The continued rise in base inflation indicates a spread of inflationary policies in other segments of the consumer market,” the bank wrote.

The bank spent less time detailing what it termed a “certain economic slowdown” in August — a fact reflected in an unexpected drop in industrial production as well as both consumer and investment demand.

Analysts expect the bank to now stay more focused on future rate hikes after signalling that it remained far more worried about the pressures facing Russia from rising food prices and utility tariffs.

“We.... see the CBR hiking another 25bp by the end of this year to preserve credibility and anchor inflation expectations,” VTB Capital wrote in a note to clients ahead of the decision.