US recession is a certainty: Economists
US President Donald Trump speaks to the press.- AFP
Washington - In February, 77 per cent of the economists expected a recession either this year, next year or in 2021.
A strong majority, 74 per cent, of US business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the US by the end of 2021.
The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released on Monday, mostly didn't share Trump's optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four per cent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25 per cent in the February survey.
Another 38 per cent of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42 per cent in February. Only two per cent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.
In February, 77 per cent of the economists expected a recession either this year, next year or in 2021. A strong economy is key to the Republican president's 2020 re-election prospects. Consumer confidence has dropped 6.4 per cent since July.
Meanwhile, Germany's central bank issued a gloomy report suggesting that growth in the summer continued to shrink, raising the possibility Europe's largest economy may be entering a recession.
A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and Germany saw a 0.1 per cent drop in the second quarter, from April to June.
In its monthly report on Monday, the Bundesbank said with falling industrial production and orders, it appears that the slump likely continued through the summer.
President Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession in the US, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week's steep drop in the financial markets.