US: Over 130,000 Russian troops now staged outside Ukraine

Ukraine’s president urged calm amid intensified warnings of a possible Russian invasion within days, saying he had yet to see convincing evidence of that, even as the US reported on Sunday that Moscow positioned more of its troops closer to Ukraine’s borders and some airlines cancelled or diverted flights to the capital of Kyiv.

President Joe Biden spoke for about 50 minutes on Sunday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and renewed promises of what the West says will be tough economic sanctions against Moscow and a NATO buildup in the event of “any further Russian aggression” against Ukraine, the White House said. They agreed to pursue both deterrence and diplomacy in the crisis, it added.

The US updated its estimate for how many Russian forces were now staged near Ukraine’s borders to more than 130,000, up from the 100,000 the US has cited publicly in previous weeks. A US official gave the estimate, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the administration’s conclusion.

Zelenskyy’s repeated statements playing down the US warnings — while Moscow’s forces surround Ukraine on three sides in what the Kremlin insists are military exercises — grew this weekend to his questioning the increasingly strident statements from US officials in recent days that Russia could be planning to invade as soon as midweek.

While Zelenskyy has urged against panic that he fears could undermine Ukraine’s economy, he and his civilian and military leaders also are preparing defences, soliciting and receiving a flow of arms from the US and other NATO members.

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Zelenskyy wore military olive drab at a drill with tanks and helicopters near Ukraine’s border with Russian-annexed Crimea this weekend. In the nearby city of Kalanchak, some expressed disbelief that Russian President Vladimir Putin would really send the troops poised along Ukraine’s borders rolling into the country.

“I don’t believe Russia will attack us,” said resident Boris Cherepenko. “I have friends in Sakhalin, in Krasnodar,” he said, naming Russian locations. “I don’t believe it.”

The US picked up intelligence that Russia is looking at Wednesday as a target date, according to a US official familiar with the findings. The official, who also was not authorised to speak publicly and did so only on condition of anonymity, would not say how definitive the intelligence was.

“We’re not going to give Russia the opportunity to conduct a surprise here, to spring something on Ukraine or the world,” Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, told CNN on Sunday, about the US warnings.

“We are going to make sure that we are laying out for the world what we see as transparently and plainly as we possibly can,” he said.

The US largely has not made public the evidence it says is underlying its most specific warnings on possible Russian planning or timing.

The Russians have deployed missile, air, naval and special operations forces, as well as supplies to sustain an invasion. This week, Russia moved six amphibious assault ships into the Black Sea, augmenting its capability to land on the coast.

Zelenskyy’s comments this weekend indicated frustration at the warnings from Washington.

“We understand all the risks, we understand that there are risks,” he said in a live broadcast. “If you, or anyone else, has additional information regarding a 100 per cent Russian invasion starting on the 16th, please forward that information to us.”

In an hourlong call Saturday with Putin, Biden said an invasion of Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but “equally prepared for other scenarios,” the White House said. It offered no suggestion that the call diminished the threat of an imminent war in Europe.

Reflecting the West’s concerns, Dutch airline KLM has cancelled flights to Ukraine until further notice, the company said.

Dutch sensitivity to potential danger in Ukrainian airspace is high following the 2014 shooting down of a Malaysian jetliner flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur as it flew over a part of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed rebels. All 298 people aboard died, including 198 Dutch citizens.

The Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said on Sunday its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to the Moldovan capital of Chisinau after the plane’s Irish lessor said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace.

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