Tough battle for Rahul, easy for Sonia Gandhi

For Rahul, Amethi still a prestigious battle.

Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi is certainly feeling the weight of the dynasty and the wrath of a fiery opponent in the family stronghold of Amethi, while mom Sonia Gandhi appears to be sitting pretty in sleepy Rae Bareilly next door. That was an easy assessment to make on my whistle-stop tour of  the two high-profile constituencies of India's political first family on voting day.
Fourteen crucial seats went to the polls in Uttar Pradesh, in the fifth phase of voting on Monday in  the Awadh region of Uttar Pradesh. The BJP won 12 of the seats last time, but the party appears to be on the defensive now with national anti-incumbency staring it in the face and shoddy performance by the state government hurting prospects. It will be hard to repeat the performance of 2014 when the Modi wave took the region by storm. The PM remains the star campaigner for the party but the wave is missing this time and some of its candidates are certain to be swept away by strong  winds kicked up by the BSP-SP-RLD combine.
For Rahul, who has also made a foray into the south from Wayanad in Kerala, Amethi still remains a prestigious battle. However, his heart appears to be in the wrong place. He is fighting on two fronts and doesn't seem to relish it. Make it three, if you bring in the combative Smriti Irani. She has proven to be sticky customer in Amethi, and the Gandhi lad (if I can call him that) is finding it hard to shake her off. He appears uncertain in his home constituency and Smriti may be right in calling him a laapata (missing)  parliamentarian who visits only when elections come by every five years.
On Monday, her media team was active, sending out messages alleging that Congress party workers were indulging in booth-capturing. There was not a word from Rahul as his team said he could land in the area at 2pm. No one knew where, and I wasn't sure if he was taking the place for granted or had already wilted under Smriti's onslaught.
Folks in Amethi I spoke to were also unsure of his commitment to the place. He's won three times from the family's hometurf. The Congress has retained the seat in every election since 1981, but what's disturbing is that he has shown little spunk for developing the area for five years. The Congress chief makes the customary visits, his sister does some stuff on his behalf; mom Sonia is there too for photo ops, making it one happy family.
It's true the grand old party lost influence in the state with the rise of the BJP post the razing of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya in 1991. What's incomprehensible is that Amethi has remained backward for decades and all that the Congress can show to world is the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology. It looked deserted as we drove into Amethi.
Smriti, meanwhile, has worked up decent support in the constituency. She has a media team in tow who send out the right messages, and the firebrand is leaving no stone unturned to swing it for her party this time.  The former TV actor may have lost from here in 2014, but she returned and has been around for five years while Rahul seems to have lost his way and strayed into the south. He will have to give up one seat if he wins both. It will save him the embarrassment if he gives up Amethi. Sister Priyanka can then act on his promises, unless she is eyeing the UP chief minister's chair in state elections in 2021.
Poll officials I spoke to Rae Bareilly and Amethi said voting was peaceful. Women voters appeared more enthusiastic than men and were calling for change. The Congress has reason to fear going by past trends. Women pitching for the BJP's Smriti could spell bad news for Rahul. His winning margin dropped from 370,000 in 2009 to 100,000 in 2014. Mom Sonia, however, improved her victory margin from 372,000 to 453,000 in 2014 from Rae Bareilly.
On my visit to the Gandhi family constituencies and after chatting with people at voting booths, it was clear that the younger generation will not accept the status quo. They want change and they will make their votes count.
India's grand old party's chances in the country's most populous state look slim on paper. They haven't been able to enthuse the youth even with a younger leadership. Grassroot-level workers are missing; there is no cadre to speak of anymore as they take on the might of the organisation the BJP has grown to become. Development is not on the agenda, sops are. The family home constituencies are stuck in a time warp. What's left is legacy and emotional appeal. Can they really count on them when India is changing rapidly? -allan@khaleejtimes.com