Shape up or ship out, Boris Johnson told, as Rishi Sunak positions himself as next UK PM

Slowly but surely, Rishi Sunak, the suave Indian-origin chancellor in the Boris Johnson government, has begun positioning himself to take over as the next Conservative leader and the prime minister, with the exit of Johnson increasingly seen as when, not if.

Huw Merriman became the latest senior Conservative leader to heap more criticism on Johnson, declaring on Friday that the latter should “shape up or ship out”. More resignations from top Downing Street advisors on Friday added to the climate of political flux in Westminster.

Unlike several big beasts in the Conservative party who have openly criticised Johnson over parties in Downing Street during Covid lockdowns, cabinet ministers have largely supported him. But Sunak on Thursday subtly distanced himself from his leader, while seeking to set his stall on how he would run the country, if he were to take over as the next prime minister.

Sunak, 41, a former banker who has a resounding back-story of a changing Britain – his parents are immigrants from east Africa, his father a doctor and mother a pharmacist – subtly criticised Johnson for falsely alleging during a heated exchange in the House of Commons that Keir Starmer, leader of the opposition, had not prosecuted a paedophile when Starmer was the director of public prosecutions in the Crown Prosecution Service.

“Being honest, I wouldn’t have said it and I’m glad that the prime minister clarified what he meant,” Sunak said on Thursday, making him the first cabinet minister to break ranks. He then followed it up with a significant article in The Sun on Friday about how things would run on “my watch”.

Seeking to burnish his Conservative credentials amidst heightened talk of Johnson being replaced, he wrote: “We’ve always been the party of sound money, we’ll always continue to be on my watch, and that’s the only kind of party I’m interested in”, which is seen as a message to enlist more support for him from the rank and file of the party and others.

However, for all the excitement in Westminster about the likely change in Downing Street, several hoops need to be crossed. At least 54 Conservative MPs need to express no-confidence in Johnson, which would trigger a leadership election within the party, and then at least 180 MPs need to vote against Johnson for him to be replaced.

The scale of numbers needed is expected to go in Johnson’s favour, since a large number of MPs owe their election to his leadership in the 2019 election. So far, less than 20 MPs have expressed no-confidence in him, but this could soon change in the event of three scenarios.

Many Conservative MPs are waiting for the ongoing police investigation into the Downing Street parties to conclude. If Johnson is interviewed by the police and receives a fixed penalty for attending some of the parties, that will focus minds and prompt more MPs to turn against him. The police have been given hundreds of images and papers related to the parties.

A prime minister being interviewed by the police is not new – Tony Blair faced the police in the ‘cash for honours’ row in 2006 – but a prime minister being convicted will be a first in British political history.

The second eventuality is the civil servant Sue Gray releasing her final report into the lockdown parties after the police investigation concludes (so far she has released an ‘update’ on her investigation).

Third, how the Conservative party fares in the local bodies elections in May. The police investigation may have bought time for Johnson for now, but if widespread public anger over the lockdown parties is reflected in the elections, it will further focus minds against Johnson.

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Of the contenders after Johnson, Sunak is by no means the only favourite, even if he is reputed to have quality support from several quarters in the party. Other top candidates are Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who was one of the candidates in the leadership election before the 2019 election.

The only person to have openly declared his ambition to contest the leadership election, if and when it is held, is Tom Tugendhat, a widely respected former soldier and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, though support for him within the party’s key wings is less firm.

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