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Oil rises on Syria-Turkey tensions

LONDON - Oil rose further above $112 a barrel on Tuesday after two days of losses, with tensions in the Middle East and the risk of supply disruptions outweighing concerns about sluggish global demand.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul said on Monday the “worst-case scenarios” between his country and Syria were now playing out, fuelling concerns that the 18-month-old conflict in Syria may spread to other countries in the region.

“There are latent supply risks on the oil market since Turkey might become involved in the conflict in Syria, which would affect key oil transport routes,” said a Commerzbank research note.

Brent futures rose 54 cents to $112.36 by 1049 GMT. US crude climbed 31 cents to $89.64, also rebounding after two consecutive sessions of declines.

OPEC’s biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, has raised output to a 30-year high of 10 million barrels per day (bpd) - helping to compensate for the cut in exports from Iran.

And Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Tuesday Saudi Arabia would continue to pump at around that rate this month. The veteran oil minister said oil prices were still too high and Riyadh would like it to fall towards $100.

More supply is also on the way from neighbouring Iraq, OPEC’s second biggest producer after Saudi. Exports this month are expected to rise above 2.8 million bpd, the highest in decades, and output is on course to more than double by 2020.

IMF cuts forecast

A poor outlook for the global economy is keeping a lid on oil price gains.

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for the second time since April and warned US and European policymakers that failure to fix their economic ills would prolong the slump.

For 2012, the IMF now expects global output to grow just 3.3 percent, down from its July estimate of 3.5 percent, making it the slowest year of growth since 2009.

It predicted only a modest pickup next year to 3.6 percent, below its July estimate of 3.9 percent.

Growth in China’s economy, the world’s second-biggest, will slow to 7.8 percent this year from 9.2 percent in 2011, the IMF said, warning of risks to emerging Asia if the euro zone crisis worsens and the United States does not avoid its “fiscal cliff”.