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'Yes', in the sense that the industry is rapidly changing and so, in a few years it will be far removed from the kind of animal that it is now. What will also change - and in fact, is already changing - is the ability of the industry to offer large numbers of jobs to young middle class people with almost any kind of engineering degree. Instead, it will offer positions only to those with higher engineering and analytical skills, and especially to those who can think up innovative solutions for business.
'No', in the sense that a few years down the line the industry will likely remain a winner, a standing refutation of the notion in economics that a developing country must get its manufacturing act together first like China before it can base a part of its growth on a globally competitive, skill-based tertiary sector offering.
Shorn of jargon, what this means is that after a few years there will still be a software and services industry worth talking about, led by stellar players such as today's TCS and Infosys. If anything, the Indian industry leaders will go up the global league table for software services vendors. Put in another way, software will continue to swing, but will add to the phenomenon of jobless growth, instead of mitigating it as it has in the past.
The contradiction between 'yes' and 'no' is highlighted by the fact that the industry players, its representative body Nasscom, and also the union minister concerned, have strongly denied that any kind of job cuts (words like layoff and retrenchment sound much worse) are afoot. On the other hand, the view from the trenches remains absolutely gloomy.
The contradiction is exemplified by Infosys which featured prominently among reports of downsizing but has announced that in the coming hiring season it plans to look at the same figure of 20,000 as it did last year. The head of a prominent Bengaluru engineering college has also affirmed that from his perch, no clouds are visible on the horizon.
The picture begins to clear when we note that yes, firms will be hiring but will also raise the bar to identify those who have not been measuring up and they will be asked to go. So at the end of the day, both hiring and firing will continue and there will be a net accretion to the workforce but several steps behind the rise in business.
In the nine months to December (financial year 2017), net hiring by the top four - TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL - declined by 21%.
The driving force behind all this, is of course, the technological changes that are taking place. Routine tasks are being automated, artificial intelligence is handling standard cognitive processes and proprietary IT systems and applications which sat at customer locations and had to be maintained are now residing on the web, often utilised on a pay per use basis.New kinds of work
Firms are shaped and positioned among investors, by those who lead them. By now, people of Indian origin are a visible presence from the top downwards in the global information technology world. The CEOs of Google (Sundar Pichai), Microsoft (Satya Nadella), Adobe (Shantanu Narayen) and several other leading global information technology firms bear obvious Indian-sounding names. And Vishal Sikka came to Infosys from a leading position in the German enterprise solutions provider SAP.
Leading Indian information technology firms earn most of their revenue globally and are totally attuned to the way the global business space in which they exist is taking shape. The leaders of these firms and those invested in them are intensively focused on retaining the firms' premier positions. If I were an investor with a long-term perspective I would stay invested in Indian IT companies, but as a career counselor, I would advise youngsters againsts thinking careers in IT will be as easy as it was in the the past. - Subir Roy is a senior journalist based in India.
- The writer is a senior journalist (The Wire)
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