India: Normal monsoon predicted for 2022

The southwest monsoon, which sets over Kerala by June is expected to be ‘normal’ this year, according to a preliminary guidance by Skymet Weather, a private weather forecaster.

“After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 and 2021, the chances of yet another episode is ruled out, statistically,” G.P. Sharma, senior executive of the firm was quoted in the media on Tuesday. “The sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall.”

While admitting it is early to decode all aspects at this stage, the weather agency said these are precursors for an early glimpse of the monsoons and to gauge it for the four-month (June-September) season.

The southwest monsoon is the lifeline for India’s agriculture sector and also for the scores of cities that have to supply drinking water to millions of residents. Last year, India recorded 87cm of rainfall during the season, marginally lower than the 88cm long-period average (1961-2010). It was also the third consecutive year that India recorded normal and above-normal rainfall.

The India Meteorological Department is expected to come out with its forecast for the forthcoming monsoons over the coming days.

El Nino, a climate pattern that describes the warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is the warm phase and has tremendous impact on the southwest monsoon in India. According to weather experts, 80 per cent of El Nino years have seen below normal rains in the country.

• India