Covid-19 UK variant spreading rapidly across US: Study

London - Findings show that the UK variant will likely become dominant in many US states by March 2021, leading to further surges of the virus

The mutated coronavirus variant, which was originally discovered in the UK and is found to be more contagious, is rapidly spreading across the US and may become the dominant strain in many states as soon as by March, a new study suggests.

A not yet peer-reviewed preprint report, posted on the MedRxiv server on Sunday, comes from a collaboration of over 50 scientists from leading US universities and research centres and provides data to support a forecast made by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in January that showed the variant becoming dominant in the US by late March.

“Because of the sudden and rapid rise of the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant across the world, we sought to understand the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the US, from early emergence to rapid onward transmission. ... These findings show that B.1.1.7 will likely become the dominant variant in many US states by March 2021, leading to further surges of Covid-19 in the country, unless urgent mitigation efforts are immediately implemented,” the study read.

The report further suggested that the UK variant was imported into the US multiple times in November 2020.

“We found that the earliest timing of introductions into the US, the likely start of sustained local transmission in California of November 27, 2020. We found that the other US clades had median (the most recent common ancestor) TMRCAs in December 2020 and January 2021, suggesting repeated introductions of B.1.1.7 into the US from international locations from November, 2020, through the present time,” the report read.

UK public health officials in December announced the emergence of the new coronavirus strain that is believed to be up to 70 per cent more transmissible. The new strain was first discovered in southeast England in September and subsequently spread rapidly throughout the United Kingdom and continental Europe.

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