The welfare wave: Decoding upcoming general elections in India

The upcoming general elections in India, scheduled before the 17th Lok Sabha's term ends on June 16, 2024, represent one of the largest democratic exercises in the world. The elections will be conducted in seven phases from April 19 to June 1, with the final results to be announced on June 4. Following the declaration of the election dates, the Model Code of Conduct is activated instantly, preventing the ruling government from making new policy announcements.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) is preparing meticulously to conduct elections not only for the 18th Lok Sabha but also for the legislative assemblies of four states, i.e., Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Sikkim. This colossal task involves managing the logistics for over 900 million eligible voters across 543 parliamentary constituencies, highlighting the ECI's commitment to ensuring a free, fair, participative, accessible, inclusive, transparent, and peaceful electoral process.

The general sentiment among poll pundits, psephologists, and media houses suggests a favourable outlook for the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's potential third term in the 2024 general elections in India. The India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey reflects this trend, predicting a significant lead for Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in various states.

The survey indicates that the NDA could maintain a dominant position in several key states, with a projected majority in states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, showing strong public support for PM Modi and his administration. PM Modi's personal popularity remains high, with a substantial portion of the population rating his performance positively.

The popularity of the prime minister can be attributed to his strategic focus on transforming India's welfare model into a more effective and robust system. This revamped welfare framework aims to simplify and improve the lives of people at the grassroots level, empowering them to enhance their well-being and achieve prosperity. By prioritizing policies and initiatives that directly benefit the common citizen, the administration has been able to resonate with a wide demographic, fostering a sense of empowerment and inclusivity among the populace. This approach not only addresses immediate needs but also lays the foundation for sustainable growth and development, contributing to the overall positive perception of the leadership.

Economist Arvind Subramanian and his co-authors have termed this welfare model as New Welfarism. They claim, “traditional redistribution, which aims to deliver on intangibles like health and education, has ceded to a distinctive ‘New Welfarism’, where centre is demonstrably providing tangible essentials to citizens”. However, I personally feel that the tangible assets which have been created under this welfare approach is empowering people which in turn is leading to better health and education outcomes.

Thus, this welfare approach should be termed as Integrated Welfare Empowerment Model (IWEM). IWEM has been a catalyst for empowering its citizens and driving transformative change at the grassroots level. This model has employed a multi-faceted approach to welfare, integrating technological advancements, direct benefit transfers, and inclusive policies to address the diverse needs of the population.

The statistical and real-world impacts of India's welfare initiatives are substantial and multifaceted. The Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, for example, has revolutionized rural and semi-urban living conditions by providing over 80 million LPG connections. This initiative has significantly reduced health problems caused by smoke from traditional cooking methods, leading to a marked improvement in respiratory health, particularly among women and children.

The housing scheme, under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, has made considerable strides in reducing homelessness, with millions of homes built for the economically weaker sections. This has not only provided shelter but also increased the sense of security and dignity among the beneficiaries.

The Jal Jeevan Mission's success is evident in its extensive reach, providing clean and safe drinking water through tap connections to millions of rural households. This has greatly reduced waterborne diseases and has fostered better hygiene and sanitation practices in rural India.

The Jan Aushadhi Mission has transformed access to healthcare by offering over 1,000 generic medicines at affordable prices through more than 7,500 stores across the country. This initiative has made essential drugs accessible and affordable, significantly reducing the financial burden of healthcare for the average citizen.

The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan has had a profound impact on public health, particularly for children, by reducing the rates of diarrhoeal diseases through improved sanitation facilities and reducing open defecation. Studies have shown a decrease in stunting and malnutrition in children as a result of this campaign, highlighting the direct link between sanitation and health outcomes.

PM Poshan has been pivotal in enhancing the nutritional status of millions of children, pregnant women, and lactating mothers across India. The program has led to improved health outcomes, increased school attendance, and better learning achievements among children, demonstrating the critical role of nutrition in cognitive and physical development.

These are only a fraction of schemes which have been introduced by the incumbent government. These welfare initiatives have not only addressed immediate needs but also contributed to long-term socio-economic development. Access to basic services like clean water, sanitation, and electricity has improved substantially as per the National Family Health Survey-5.

From a theoretical perspective, the success of India’s new welfare model can be analysed through the lens of the Capability Approach, advocated by economist Amartya Sen. This approach emphasises enhancing individuals' capabilities to lead the kind of lives they value. The direct provision of goods and services, as seen in India's welfare programs, expands these capabilities, allowing individuals to achieve better health, education, and economic outcomes.

Moreover, the model aligns with the theory of Inclusive Growth, which advocates for economic growth that is broad-based, sustainable, and provides opportunities for all sections of society to contribute to and benefit from economic progress. The welfare initiatives in India, by focusing on inclusivity and targeting marginalized sections, embody the principles of Inclusive Growth, leading to a broader societal impact and contributing to the government's popularity.

The popularity of the incumbent government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, can be linked to the perceived success and positive impact of these welfare programs. The government’s emphasis on direct benefit transfers, digitalisation of services, and streamlined governance has fostered a sense of inclusivity and empowerment among the populace. The Modi administration's focus on development and welfare has translated into electoral support, as evidenced by the survey results indicating a strong likelihood of a third term for the prime minister.

Aditya Sinha (X: @adityasinha004) is Officer on Special Duty, Research, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. View personal.

• Opinion
• India