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The Benazir Bhutto factor this time around

Despite all the corruption scandals against her the party cadres, even if decreased and somewhat decrepit, are still intact. The cadres and the party supporters will no doubt put up a grand welcome for their leader provided the government does not prevent them from travelling to the airport.

Benazir carries the name that has for the longest time ruled the hearts of the largest chunk in the Pakistani electorate. Even for its detractors and the authors of guided-democracy perpetually engaged in landscaping Pakistani democracy, the Bhutto name cannot be ignored. It is an irony of fate that those very forces that led the khaki logic of 2002, which dictated that Benazir Bhutto's electoral victory will be detrimental to Pakistan's interests, have now concluded the opposite. In a recent television interview, General Pervez Musharraf acknowledged that despite the corruption of the PPP, it is a party that enjoys national support.

The khaki's political re-engineering project did not succeed. Musharraf's eight years failed to discard the Benazir and Nawaz factors. No new political leadership emerged. Instead the charisma of the old survived. Politics does not lend itself to 'engineering.' Instead it is the intangible charisma, among other factors, that builds the support for popular politicians.

In Pakistani politics, topping the list of charismatic politicians is the Bhutto name. Despite the long list of Benazir Bhutto's political blunders, corruption scandals and other contenders for political charisma, passed from father to daughter, the name still bears, even though markedly reduced, the charismatic hold.

Clean logic doesn't explain charisma. The chaos of the complex, the non-elite reality, which sentiments of a large section of the society's 'have-nots' calculate, the lived experiences of the marginalised that defies the dominant reason-based discourse, are the factors that comprise the context within which charisma survives. Also it is a life afflicted with tragedy and turmoil, one that lives through the pain and the anguish and still survives to play a role on the public stage, is one that becomes the stuff of charisma.

Charisma-struck Bhutto supporters tend to only selectively register the flaws of their leader. Their perception is distorted by the triple tragedy of death of a father lost at the gallows, a brother bulleted and another poisoned, forced ouster from her legitimately earned prime ministerial position, and Benazir's own years in imprisonment and for eight years remaining away from her homeland.

The other side of the Bhutto reality is what her supporters have long ignored: the corruption scandals and the intolerance and inefficiencies of her governments. The Zaradari factor too, is disregarded. Her Washington connection pales before her many positive assets. Then there is the broader power context of Pakistan which, with its many contradictions and many excesses takes away peoples' ability to move beyond the realm of heroes and villains. The public lives the reality of the morality of the ruling classes that is constructed on shifting sands. If it's a choice between your crook versus my crook, the public will rather opt for their own crook. The cost of the absence of a process, which helps to weed out the bad and lead in the good on the political horizon, is the rise of cultish figures. Yet whatever popular support exists for Benazir it is not merely a manifestation of blind faith. Instead it makes manifest the acceptability by the public of what they believe to be the lesser evil. Much of the middle class analysis may appear to be an Orwellian chant of the advantaged elite.

Benazir returns, to yet again, benefit from the political support that this charisma accrues to her. Her dealings with the uniformed president are unlikely to be a support-loser. Her core support will remain intact. The issues of constitutional democracy, rule of law and judicial independence have not yet become important political determinants of Pakistani politics. These issues have only captured the imagination of the urban population which also recognises that in Pakistan's current political scenario these will remain parallel to and not integrated in Pakistani mainstream politics.

None other than the political choices that the man who was the star of the post-March movement for judicial independence, has reiterated this reality. In a recent interview Aitzaz Ahsan said he will stand by his leader and will contest on the PPP ticket. He is okay with his leader's deal with the man he argued repeatedly must vacate the presidential position. By his political support for Benazir, Aitzaz has endorsed her position that for a smooth transition engaging with a uniformed president is okay.

In the 2002 elections the PPP polled 29 per cent of the votes that were cast. The response to her post-arrival politics in the various provinces, and especially in the NWFP, will indicate Benazir's likely electoral support in the coming elections.

Meanwhile, her public support and her charisma factor notwithstanding, her arrival in Pakistan will pose hurdles for her that she must overcome at least in her return to active electoral politics. One, the nervousness of the Musharraf government and of the ruling party as Benazir opts for active politicking. There is room for Bhutto-Musharraf tension given that there is no comprehensive political accord between the two. She entered into an only issue-specific engagement with General Musharraf. Hence once on the election trail, at the hustings her party's traditional political positions vis-à-vis the army in politics, the PML-Q and the MQM will also be articulated. Also, Musharraf's stated displeasure at Bhutto's pre-election return, may mutually queer the pitch. In short, it's not a guaranteed Musharraf-Bhutto smooth-sailing ahead. Musharraf 's right hand men of the PML-Q are unlikely to opt for any but a policy of political bickering with the PPP.

Two, the media trial that will be conducted on issues ranging from corruption to engaging with a military ruler and from the Washington connection to her pro-Washington position on the global war on terrorism and on extremism within Pakistan. The media has repeatedly raised the paradoxes of Benazir's political careers. It is a media that generally is both sympathetic personally and harsh politically towards Benazir. Meanwhile armed groups in Waziristan have repeatedly issued death threats against Benazir for what they view as pro-Washington policies against terrorism.

Three, the return of the Sharifs to Pakistan could potentially cut into her vote bank; especially in the Punjab and in the country's urban constituency. As the voice of a genuine national level opposition the Sharifs pose the biggest challenge to the Bhutto bid for power. As a party positioning itself as an anti-establishment nationalist democratic party, the PML-N is the flag bearer of 21st century radical politics of Pakistan. Meanwhile, the ruling party's political contours, beyond being a Musharraf-mentored party, have yet to emerge.

Finally, how the Bhutto name scores in the latest round of electoral politics notwithstanding, what is relevant for Pakistan is Benazir's ability to deliver on the crucial challenge that Pakistan's state, society and politics faces; the challenge of being able to effectively arrest the growing violently promoted internal ideological and political discord. Her existing credentials to meet this challenge do not appear to be strong.

Nasim Zehra is a fellow of Harvard University Asia Center, Cambridge, Mass. and Adjunct professor at SAIS Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC