Gujarat rattles Modi chariot as Congress makes inroads

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing a public meeting.- PTI

 Does one wholeheartedly congratulate Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for winning a fifth term in Gujarat or is there an 'uh oh' factor that enters the equation? One that indicates a cracked wheel in the once invincible political centurion's chariot. Falling far short of BJP chief Amit Shah's projection of 150 plus seats, the BJP has not even touched close to 115 which were theirs in 2012.
In fact, there was a time on Monday morning when the Sensex burped in reaction to the Congress skidding surprisingly swiftly out of the starting gate and running pretty much parallel in terms of trends. The final count landed the BJP 99, the Congress 79 and others four.
So, before one breaks out the sweets and dances in the street, even diehard Modi fans will be hard-pressed to enthuse. This is in his home state and by no stretch of imagination is it that sweeping triumph one associates with a Modi-led campaign. This is more like an exhausted marathon runner engaged in a last hurrah as he breasts the tape. Regardless of the analyses that will now simmer on the media front burner, it cannot be denied that the Congress closed the gap.
At the same time, Rahul Gandhi, not so long ago lampooned into oblivion or so one thought, has emerged as a bit of a winner in these stakes and certainly a viable opposition leader with nearly 42 per cent of the popular vote. And a healthy chunk of the house in his grip. It is still to be seen how close the vote break-up was for each of the wins and it will indicate the affection levels for the candidates. 
Factor in other disparate independents and the chance of breakaways by disgruntled BJP MPs over the weeks of the establishment of a new order and the BJP citadel could well be breached at any time. One thing is sure, the BJP government in Gujarat will not have an easy time and the resistance to its functioning will be obstructive and disruptive. Rahul will use inflation, unemployment and the losses to mid-level businesses as his shoehorns to gain further acceptance.
Would the Congress be delighted with its showing? Certainly, it would be disappointed that it got so much further from its 57 seats last time round but could not bring the bacon home. An extra 24 more seats is not something to sneeze at. Just a little more would have seen the BJP falling off the radar even for the 2019 general elections and the mighty Modi eclipsed by the man who knew nothing of politics.
The major giveaway is the patent relief eddying through the BJP camp. There was a nervousness in its ranks and that indicates the fear of a loosened grip on power. No longer can it take for granted its place at the helm of this vital state. Between the Patidars, the Dalits, the urban middle class and the business community, there is now a combined adversary at the gate and it will manifest itself starting now. In a perfect world for the BJP it should not even have considered the Congress as a viable adversary.
The failure to reach 115 seats which it presently had cannot be wished away. While there is no tidal wave against Modi, he would be the first person to privately acknowledge that his glitter has slipped into diminishing returns and there has been an adverse impact from the fiscal policies, the bruising of the bottom line and disaffection in specific vote banks. You cannot lose plus 40 per cent of the popular vote and pretend the garlands are still fresh and your mandate absolute. Whether at the national level or in the state elections, the concern should be that the mandate is not gilt-edged.
The BJP may suck at the straw and obtain some sustenance from toppling the Congress in Himachal Pradesh, but it will not be enough salve for the lukewarm showing in the home state. It will now have to deal with restoring credibility in the masses and also face possible dissension in the ranks as it chisels a new Cabinet and tries to please and appease various categories with representation. It does not matter how much it widens the Cabinet with extra posts, the carpentry will leave behind debris and disenchantment and the Congress will not stop baying at every step. This is the core of the result. Not the retaining of power but allowing the moat to be breached by the enemy. While Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel and BJP state chief Jitu Vaghani have won so have the Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani, and Alpesh Thakor, who joined the party weeks before the elections. Hardik Patel, the young Patidar leader, has established his credentials and impacted on the result dramatically, giving the BJP severe acidity and is now a spokesman sans competition for them.
There is no reason for Rahul Gandhi not to see a sense of satisfaction in the outcome. An outright victory would have been unrealistic but the very fact that this first trial by fire saw him spoken of in the same breath as Modi is victory enough. Another 100 metres in the race in time terms and the dark horse might well have inched even closer. Between him and his newfound buddies, tomorrow is another day.
Point then is does anyone ever remember who came second? To the victor belong the spoils.
 
 

• India