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Tough draws, wet weather open door to Derby upset

LOUISVILLE - Foul weather and perilous post positions for favourites Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy have heightened the chances for a big-money upset at this weekend’s Kentucky Derby.

The ‘Run for the Roses’ is a 20-horse exercise in guesswork in the best of circumstances but throw in the heavy rain that is expected for Saturday’s race and it becomes a four-legged lottery.

Lookin At Lucky trainer Bob Baffert decided to look on the bright side after his colt drew the unenviable number one post for the mile-and-a-quarter race.

“Sometimes with weather like that the inside might be a little bit better,” the triple Derby winner told reporters on Thursday at the Churchill Downs stable area.

“(The rail) sort of changes things a little bit but not a whole lot. The main thing is that the horse is a good horse. There have been a few winners out of that one (post).”

Since 1900, posts one and five have produced the most Derby winners although no one has triumphed from the rail since Bill Shoemaker guided Ferdinand to the winner’s circle in 1986.

While Lookin At Lucky, ridden by Garrett Gomez, was installed as the 3-1 favourite, Kentucky-bred Sidney’s Candy was second best at 5-1.

Santa Anita Derby champion Sidney’s Candy will break from the far outside 20-post.

Big Brown won from the far outside in 2008 but only one other horse had previously won the Derby from that post, Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.

“I’m thinking about having a pin made up that I can wear saying, ‘Yes, I know Big Brown won out of the 20-hole’,” joked Sidney’s Candy trainer John Sadler.

“About 20 people have come up to me and told me that one.”

Sadler, whose colt will be ridden by 20-year-old Joe Talamo, said he was not sure what to say when he learned of his post-position fate.

“I felt like the kid who gets a lump of coal from Santa in his Christmas stocking,” he said. “It took me a while to digest it. But in the end what are you going to do? It’s racing. Deal with it.”

The heavy rain expected in Louisville on Friday night and into Saturday could give other horses a shot that otherwise might have normally been on the outside looking in.

The D Wayne Lukas chestnut Dublin (12-1), Florida Derby champion Ice Box (10-1) or Super Saver (15-1), ridden by hometown favourite and twice Derby winner Calvin Borel, might now garner further backing at the betting window.

Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya would have been the prohibitive favourite but was scratched this week with a leg injury. Now punters are working overtime.

Eoin Harty, trainer of Illinois Derby winner American Lion (30-1), has other reasons to be optimistic.

“I found a four-leaf clover the other day and I’ve drawn number seven,” said the Irishman. “I was number seven in Dubai (with Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed in 2009).

“There are a lot of omens.”