Europe should learn lessons from the last decade

Recently elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has created several new positions designed to move the needle on climate change, the economy, and jobs.

By Jon Van Housen & Mariella Radaelli (Euroscope)

Published: Mon 6 Jan 2020, 9:13 PM

Last updated: Mon 6 Jan 2020, 11:24 PM

Was it a lost decade in Western Europe? As the final days of 2019 brought down the curtain on an eventful 10 years, many taking stock in Europe admit things sure didn't turn out the way they hoped. Perhaps not a lost decade, but a decade of lost opportunities. Maybe even one of tectonic change.
Any expectation in 2010 that Europe would remain much the same in the decade ahead - just more evolved perhaps - vanished like the ephemeral motif in an overwrought baroque minuet. Instead of greater civility and humanistic culture, several countries found themselves locked in a grim battle with joblessness, debt, and impoverishment as the Great Recession really took hold and lingered.
Others bickered and bemoaned the changing times, amplified as in the rest of the world by social media with all its avalanche of opinions and questionable veracity. As populist and alternative parties rose, some commentators worried about the specter of rising neo-fascism under more palatable names and labels.
The entire region was hit by a wave of migration so large it is certain to forever alter the cultures and demographics of Europe. The last five years of the decade saw an enormous influx of arrivals from the Middle East and Africa, many risking their lives in the escape as they became grateful new residents that didn't just place a drain on Europe - they also held the promise of reinvigorating the workforce. It was also a period that saw birthrates in traditional European families continue to fall to among the lowest in the world, below the level needed to maintain the population itself.
The 28 counties that would one day comprise the European Union had 13 per cent of the world's population in 1960, but today in 2020 they account for less than 7 per cent. By 2100 projections say the figure will be four per cent as populations in Asia and Africa continue to surge.
The change is also reflected in Europe's share of the world economy. In 1960, those 28 nations contributed 36.3 per cent of global GDP, a ratio that is projected to decline to 22.4 per cent this year. By 2100 the share is expected to be less than 10 per cent of worldwide GDP.
The last half of the decade also held the spectacle of the grand divorce of Brexit. The isles of Britain have again receded to their sea-bound isolation after an experiment in true European integration that lasted a mere 46 years, a brief moment on the timescale of countries that count their histories in millennia.
And the stable beacon of the US also dimmed. The same nation that helped rebuild Europe after WWII now seemed to turn against its closest allies. Under the bizarre and unpredictable presidency of Donald Trump, the US became an adversary to Europe in trade, security, and geopolitical affairs. Certainly few could have dreamed in 2010 that such destructive and unqualified man would be given the helm of the great ship of America.
European leaders are no doubt hoping they will be dealing with a new US president following elections this year. They already have new leadership in the EU installed last fall. Not sugar-coating the challenges ahead, recently elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has created several new positions designed to move the needle on climate change, the economy, and jobs.
Von der Leyen has set out an ambitious, even confrontational role for the commission. She is challenging EU member states with several big goals including a 'geopolitical commission' that can stand up to the US and China. She's determined to give Europe a digital upgrade and better cooperation on migration. But above all, she wants a 'European Green Deal' to make the entire EU carbon neutral by 2050.
But dealing with the EU bureaucracy to get any of that done is no easy task. Longtime EU watcher Andreas Kluth, now a member of Bloomberg's editorial board, notes that the huge institution is rife with "a constant din of general bickering - within the parliament, among national leaders, and between the institutions."
"The cast ranges from bone-dry Eurocrats to wanton gadflies and flamboyant prima donnas," Kluth writes. "The relationship currently being watched is that between the 'Jupiterian' Macron and the matter-of-fact pastor's daughter Merkel. Brussels really is like an unruly family." He thinks if anyone can actually effect change in such a dysfunctional clan it could be von der Leyen, the mother of seven children and a medical doctor.
"If anybody can hold the EU together, then, it may well be von der Leyen," writes Kluth, noting she was "born in Brussels as daughter of a German politician who was then helping to negotiate the Treaty of Rome, the foundation of what is today the EU."
As she lays out a vision for the next decade, von der Leyen is no doubt aware the previous 10 years brought developments that in their totality few could have predicted. It is likely to be a quizzical decade studied more for how everything went wrong rather than right.
Let's hope the lessons were learned.
Jon Van Housen and Mariella Radaelli are editors at www.luminosityitalia.com