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Europe needs consensus, new leader can build it

Though it is a secret ballot, results collated by the media indicate Von der Leyen gained a thin majority in part through the backing of members from the UK who will barely have time to keep their seats warm before leaving the parliament when Brexit finally takes effect.

Ursula von der Leyen might have broken through the 'glass ceiling' as the first woman President-elect of the European Commission, but she starts out on a much weaker foundation than her predecessor.
In mid-July she was elected to head the European Union's executive arm with a bare 51 per cent majority, garnering 383 votes in the new EU parliament, far fewer than the 422 votes received five years ago by current President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Noted for its diverse, contentious parliament even in the best of times, the EU is facing an existential moment with wide cracks opening over Brexit, migration policy, climate change, and whether further transnational integration is possible - or even desirable.
Her candidacy for EU president failed to gain the support of the surging Greens and other pro-EU parties, a disappointment no doubt for her but also for those who want stable five years ahead in EU policy and programmes.
Her position appears even shakier when considering who did support her. Though it is a secret ballot, results collated by the media indicate she gained a thin majority in part through the backing of members from the UK who will barely have time to keep their seats warm before leaving the parliament when Brexit finally takes effect on October 31.
Her narrow victory was also supported by the so-called Visegrad countries - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - who opposed Socialist candidate Frans Timmermans. They want a leader who goes softer on demands related to the rule of law.
Supporting the rule of law is certainly important, Von der Leyen said after her election, but told the German press that "no one is perfect". She said financial sanctions against EU member states should only be "a very last resort after other steps have been exhausted." Hungary and Poland now face possible EU sanctions over the issue.
The former German minister of defense acknowledged the difficulties ahead in the nascent stage of her tenure. "There was a great deal of resentment, and I understand it," she said in reference to how other candidates for president were rejected.
She claimed her election was actually a promising sign, taking 'only' 13 days of intense horse-trading and behind-the-scenes negotiation to complete.
"It's a good base to start from. I want to work constructively with this parliament," she said. "We need to find answers to overcome the divisions between east and west, north and south."
That indeed is a big order.
Though she is supported by French President Emmanuel Macron - he actually nominated her to the position - that blessing is also a curse. Many in Europe view Macron as over-grasping in his bid to advance French and liberal EU causes.
Von der Leyen also clearly has the backing of the German chancellor - she was the longest-serving cabinet member in Angela Merkel's governments from 2005 to 2019 - but even her supporters know the road ahead is rocky. "It's going to be difficult. The Greens are playing hard," one of her supporters told the French press.
Green group Co-President Philippe Lamberts confirmed that hardline stance, demanding that no fewer than four members of the commission that Von der Leyen will form come from his party.
"I have reason to think she'll come around to us," he added. "It's an untenable situation. There's no majority without the Greens. If she wants to negotiate, we won't come cheap."
Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta told news agencies after the secret ballot that Von der Leyen "gave a very good speech, very pro-European, but the result was disappointing and the majority very small."
Long a member of Germany's centre-right Christian Democratic Union, she could expand her support by courting the conservative European People's Party, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the liberal Renew Europe group, which could together form a comfortable majority. Yet on the night of the ballot that elected her, many of those withheld their support. Von der Leyen will certainly need more support when her team of 27 commissioners - one from each member state - is presented to the Strasbourg parliament for approval in October.
"It could hang over the whole parliamentary mandate. She needs to win over the Greens and the rest of the socialists," said Letta, now president of the Institut Jacques Delors.
Yet the small majority of support for her candidacy could be more a reflection of unhappiness with the process rather than her skills or policies. Other European countries have long questioned the validity of a common government headquartered in Brussels that seems to be run from Berlin and Paris.
If she can't cobble together more consensus it will be a tough five years ahead. Long criticised as a talking shop that in reality wields little global power, the EU must find a way to provide a more united front in a turbulent world buffeted by headwinds from Washington and Beijing as well as a changing climate that brought record torrid temperatures across Europe last week.
Jon Van Housen and Mariella Radaelli are editors at www.luminosityitalia.com