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Global economic crisis is
not behind us, says expert

Presenting a paper on the concluding day of the 16^th annual conference of the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research on the “Future Impact of the Global Economic Crisis”, Manu Bhaskaran, Senior Adjunct Research Fellow, Institute of Policy, Studies Republic of Singapore, sketched out the likely medium-term economic landscape of the next one to two years so as to establish a picture of how the global economic crisis will unfold in its final stages. In particular, he assess the economic risks in 2011–2012 posed by the unintended consequences of policies meant to rescue the developed economies from the crisis, as well as the consequences of the as yet uncompleted adjustment processes which must be applied before the crisis is truly over.

He assessed the major effects of the crisis that will shape the post-crisis world in the long term. He argued that the post-crisis global economy will be substantially changed from its pre-crisis predecessor. He also outlined key changes, such as the likely deceleration in global economic growth, and the complex factors that will drive 
such changes.

He also reviewed the most important lessons of the crisis for economies such as the Gulf states and discussed the economic performance of key Asian economies which suffered relatively little from the crisis, as well as those economies which while enduring a sizeable contraction in economic output were nevertheless able to rebound relatively quickly and powerfully.

Held under the title: Global Strategic Developments: A Futuristic Vision from March 21 to 23, the forum contained five panels, in which 18 lectures were delivered by various prominent experts, scholars, researchers and officials from the UAE, the Arabian Gulf and other countries.

On the first day the conference discussed the future of the global political system; unipolarism and superpower politics; the role of rising powers on the world stage; and the future of the United Nations and the Security Council.

Panels of the second day examined the future of military developments; the future of war; future military alliances; and offer a strategic vision to ensure Gulf security. It also analysed security challenges; the protection of vital installations; risk management; and the implications of the privatization of security on internal state safety and protection.

The third day’s discussions addressed the global economic outlook by examining international financial institutions and world economic stability; the impact of the international economic crisis; and the future of the international monetary system. The concluding panel set a roadmap for the future of the Arabian Gulf states based on anticipated strategic developments and the prospects for human development in the Gulf. —