Arab Spring crisis cost economies Dh3 trillion

Dubai - The damage to infrastructure reached $461 billion besides their reparable cost of destroyed historic and architectural sites.

dubai - The total direct cost incurred by Arab economies as a result of the Arab Spring has been estimated to be Dh3 trillion, a report revealed on Tuesday.
The 'Arab Spring Cost Report', released at the Arab Strategy Forum (ASF) in Dubai, has based the final numbers on a calculation that factors in the cost of rebuilding, losses in gross domestic product, losses to tourism, the refugee crisis, as well as losses to the investments and securities markets.  
The report highlights the detrimental outcomes of the Arab Spring on economic and social development in the region.
The report estimated that costs related to the Arab Spring between 2010 and 2014 reached $833.7 billion (Dh3 trillion) in addition to the human cost of 1.34 million people that were killed or injured because of wars and terrorist attacks.
The damage to infrastructure reached $461 billion besides their reparable cost of destroyed historic and architectural sites. The cumulative losses to the GDP that could have been sustained were estimated at $289 billion, based on GDP growth estimates and local currency exchange rates.
Besides, stock markets and investment losses amounted to more than $35 billion, while losses to financial markets amounted to $18.3 billion and losses in FDI notched up an additional $16.7 billion.
The report has based its analysis on data and information from studies by the World Bank, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs as well as the International Trade Center of the World Trade Organization, and Thomson Reuters.
Mohammed Al Gergawi, Chairman of the Executive Office of His Highness Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, and Chairman of the Arab Strategy Forum, said the report summarises the direct costs of the chaos following the Arab Spring and does not measure the missed development or economic opportunities. "Nor does it factor in the cost of the educational and psychological rehabilitation of students, families and other segments that were affected by the chaos. The report also does not measure the costs that were deflected on other countries in the region and globally as a result of the significant surge in the number of displaced people and refugees. In addition, it does not track the huge security costs absorbed by countries as a result of terrorist threats by unstable powers."
"Whether we are with or against the Arab Spring, we have to look at it in the context of history and civilization to realize that it has led to a sharp deterioration in the region, a dramatic loss in economic and growth opportunities over the past several years and destroyed the infrastructure that the region had invested decades, even centuries to build," said Al Gergawi.
In a research report released in 2013, HSBC had predicted that the Arab Spring uprisings would end up costing Middle Eastern economies about $800 billion in lost output by the end of 2014 as countries struggle to restore stability. By the end of 2014, gross domestic product in the seven hardest-hit countries - Egypt  Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Bahrain - would be 35 per cent lower than it would have been if the 2011 uprisings had not happened, the bank had estimated.
Al Gergawi said the Strategy Forum has compiled this report to raise awareness among key decision makers as well as citizens within the Arab world and elsewhere about the price we are paying every day as a result of the chaos and instability triggered by the Arab Spring. "The Forum will continue issuing similar analysis and reports in the future with the aim to put the events occurring in our region in a clear context and measure their impact and outcomes based on neutral and highly credible sources."
- issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com

• MENA