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Copper treads water ahead of central bank meetings

SINGAPORE - Copper was little changed on Tuesday, as traders cautiously waited to see if monetary policy meetings in the United States and Europe would yield fresh easing measures while also eyeing factory data from China for new trading cues.

Anticipated new steps to shore up the fragile US and European economies this week have made traders reluctant to put on positions, draining liquidity and direction from an already thin summer market.

China’s official manufacturing sector index for July, to be released on Wednesday, will be scoured for more evidence that loosening steps taken by Beijing in the past few months have filtered down to the real economy, helping stimulate growth and metals demand.

“Copper remains macro-driven and data point dependent, but the likelihood of any strong conviction trend emerging through the summer months seems pretty limited considering physical markets are all but dead,” said Hong Kong-based commodities analyst James Luke of China International Capital Corporation.

“Still, people will be watching the NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) PMI tomorrow. There’s the possibility of some increased conviction if the decent HSBC flash number is followed by an improved PMI.”

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded at $7,564.50 a tonne by 0704 GMT, up 0.21 percent from the previous session. A steady euro against the dollar offered support to metals. A weaker US currency makes commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

London copper prices have recovered by more than 3 percent from last week’s one-month lows but still remain in negative territory for the month.

The most-traded November copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.40 percent to close at 55,050 yuan ($8,600)a tonne.

China is the world’s biggest market for refined copper, accounting for 40 percent of refined demand last year, but there is scant buying interest from consumers, traders said.

“Physical demand is weak, traders tend to sell when prices are above $7,600,” a Hong Kong-based trader said.

“Copper is correcting in the short term: $7,600 is strong resistance and $7,520 is near term support,” he added.

For a table of events that may have a direct bearing on the commodity markets this week

Lead outlook

On Monday, lead hit its highest since June 7 but further gains have been capped by trade selling, with signs pointing to softer demand from the North American battery market in particular, traders and analysts said.

North American shipments of replacement automotive batteries in June fell 5.94 percent from May and dropped 7.72 percent from June 2011, a US industry group said on Monday.

“Lead put in another strong performance up to $1,952 as technical buying through $1,930 emerged but trade selling was seen as the market rose,” trading house Sucden said in a research note.