With markets in China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, closed for a week-long holiday, volumes will be thin and metals are unlikely to stage dramatic moves, analysts and traders said.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.3 percent to $8,325 per tonne at 1048 GMT extending gains from $8,299.5 per tonne at the close on Monday, when it rose about one percent. Volumes were a slim 8,273 lots.
“It’s money being put back into the market,” said the head of sales at an LME Category 1 trader. “We’re seeing plenty of CTA (commodity trade advisors) activity, certainly yesterday and the tail end of last week as well...we now see fresh longs in place.”
The unexpected expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector increased in September and an improvement in employment helped lift most markets on Monday, including base metals, and pushed the dollar lower as investors’ appetite for riskier assets improved.
A weaker dollar tends to lift base metals as it makes them cheaper for investors holding alternative currencies.
But euro zone factories suffered their worst quarter since early 2009, and factory activity in China also contracted, suggesting the world’s No. 2 economy lost momentum for a seventh consecutive quarter.
Natixis analyst Nic Brown expects base metals to remain under pressure until China’s new leaders are in place and measures to stimulate the economy put into action.
The ruling Communist Party will hold a congress to appoint the new generation of central leaders from Nov. 3. The handover of state posts will be formalised at the annual meeting of parliament probably in March next year.
“It may be that we have to wait until the new political team is in place until we really get some traction behind some of these stimulus measures,” Brown said.
China has given the green light to 60 metals-intensive infrastructure projects, including plans to build highways, ports and airport runways, worth more than $150 billion as it looks to energize its economy.
This week, the test for the markets will be on Wednesday with the release of U.S. ISM non-manufacturing data and on Friday with the September U.S. labour market report.
“In the run up to these two events, trading conditions are likely to remain choppy,” Credit Suisse said in a research note.
In other metals, tin rose 0.2 percent to $21,900 f rom $21,850 while zinc, used in galvanizing, was up 0.9 percent at $2,128 f r om $2,109 a t Monday’s close.
Battery material lead was up 0.7 at $2,129.25 from $2,292 and aluminium was up 0.1 percent at $2,129 from $8,299.5. Nickel was up 0.4 percent at $18,812 from $18,730.
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