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Copper gains on soft dollar, Merkel comments

LONDON - Copper rose on Friday on a softer dollar and after German Chancellor Angela Merkel backed European Central Bank efforts to fight the euro zone crisis, emboldening investors to put their money into riskier assets.

Merkel voiced support for ECB President Mario Draghi’s crisis-fighting strategy on Thursday and pressed her European partners to move swiftly towards a closer integration of fiscal policies, saying time was running short.

Her comments lifted the euro, and the dollar retreated against a basket of currencies. A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the unit less expensive for holders of other currencies.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.6 percent at $7,497 per tonne by 1036 GMT, following a 0.9 percent gain in the previous session, and was on track to post a 0.3 percent rise on the week.

“I think it’s slightly more positive sentiment on the European issue and a strengthening of the euro vs the dollar,” BNP Paribas metals strategist Stephen Briggs said.

“There’s no real sense yet that anything fundamental has changed within the metal markets. These moves are still within ranges.”

Copper has been stuck in a trading range of between $7,300 and $7,600 since July 20.

Falling inventories of the metal in warehouses monitored by the LME has helped put a floor under prices. Briggs expects stocks to fall further this year and possibly give impetus to a rally in the next three to four months.

The latest data shows inventories of copper in warehouses monitored by the LME have fallen to their lowest levels since early June in a sign that demand is picking up. Stocks have fallen by around 20,000 tonnes from summer highs to 234,550 tonnes.

“Copper inventory levels on the LME are extremely low, and the market is vulnerable to a squeeze,” said Guy Wolf, a macro strategist at Marex Spectron.

“We’ve seen a further small draw in LME stocks yesterday, which combined with US housing starts is bullish for copper. Despite concern over Chinese demand, the short-term outlook for copper looks good.”

While U.S. housing starts dipped last month, new permits for building homes rose 6.8 percent in July to 812,000 units, the highest rate since August 2008. Around 400 pounds of copper are used in a typical U.S. home.

LME aluminium rose 0.4 percent to $1,850 per tonne, bouncing up from a three-year low of $1,827.25 hit on Thursday. Traders attributed the volatility to the metal’s weak fundamentals and its susceptibility to panic selling.

RBC said in a research note that aluminium’s rally into the close on Thursday and a steady bid in nearby spreads indicated “that someone has been waiting for a buying opportunity”.

“Whether this is simply a short taking profits or a real sea change remains to be seen,” RBC said. “We would say the technical picture favours further downside weakness in the short term, but we continue to look for a rally towards year-end.”

China

In China, the world’s top metals consumer, recent comments from the government have stirred hopes for more policy action to stimulate the economy. The country’s trade outlook for 2012 has worsened as problems deepen in trading partner Europe and foreign direct investment growth slows.

“The big talking point in markets this morning is China and whether it will announce some form of policy easing this evening,” ANZ said in a research note. “Chinese media is speculating that we may see more than the 50 point cut in reserve ratio requirements.”

Nickel, aluminium and zinc could also find support from talk that the Chinese government may be stocking up on these metals while they trade near their marginal production costs, traders said.

Hit by slowing economic growth, China’s smelters are lobbying the government to revive a state-run scheme to stockpile industrial metals, which would support prices and possibly lead to a surge in imports, industry sources have said.

LME zinc rose 0.8 percent to $1,800, bouncing off a 1-1/2 month low hit in the previous session.