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Copper falls for second day as stimulus rally deflates

LONDON - Copper fell for a second day on Tuesday after a broad rally triggered last week by the US Federal Reserve’s new efforts to stimulate the flagging economy ran out of steam and investors booked profits.

The Fed said on Sept. 13 it was launching a new programme of buying $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities bonds, known as quantitative easing (QE) that would be open ended as it sought to improve the US labour market outlook.

That sent financial markets soaring, but by Monday the rally reversed as investors turned their attention from central bank stimulus to slowing global growth. Equities, commodities and the euro were all lower again on Tuesday.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was $8,250 in official rings, after suffering modest losses on Monday. On Friday, it rose to $8,411 a tonne, its highest since May 2 and its biggest single-day rally since June.

“There was a lot of short covering, and it looks like that’s run its course,” Deutsche Bank analyst Dan Brebner said.

“The on-the-ground conditions remain quite poor and it seems in the US at least that they are deteriorating, and concerns with respect to China remain very much in place.”

China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper, is on course for its weakest full year of growth since 1999, with 2012 growth likely to fall below 8 percent, a Reuters poll showed.

The poll showed pessimism deepening, partly reflecting disappointment at the lack of more urgent policy action to bring down the cost of credit.

But any further monetary easing is unlikely to come before a once a decade change in the leadership of China’s Communist Party, which may happen next month.

Brebner said for copper to break out of the ranges it has mostly traded in the past few months, the Chinese government would have to follow the lead of the Fed and be more aggressive in stimulating growth.

“If that were to happen we would see a decent move higher,” he said, but added that it was unlikely before the new government was in place, and possibly not until after the Chinese New Year early next year.

A stronger dollar versus a basket of currencies also weighed on metals prices. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the US unit more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Aluminium

In aluminium, fourth-quarter premiums to Japanese buyers, Asia’s biggest importers of the metal, rose 24 percent from the previous quarter to a record high of $254-$255 a tonne as supplies remain tight, traders said on Tuesday.

Three-month aluminium was $2,154 in rings from $2,167 at the close on Monday.

The LME price has fallen more than 10 percent since March, but premiums - money paid over the benchmark LME cash price to secure physical metal - have set record highs despite a global surplus due partly to large stocks locked up by banks in financing deals.

Also reflecting a lack of available supply, the cost to roll nearby aluminium contracts soared to $8.50 on a tomorrow, next day delivery, basis, the highest since January, ahead of the September contract expiry this week.

“Expect this week to see more consolidation in an effort to wear off the overbought situation, as well as to test the resolve of the weak longs,” RBC said in a research note.

Tin was $21,400 from $21,575 while zinc, used in galvanizing, was $2,082 f rom $2,089 at Monday’s close.