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Pressure grows on Syria but world powers divided

Arab foreign ministers said in Cairo that unless Syria agreed to let the monitors in to assess progress of an Arab League plan to end eight months of bloodshed, officials would consider imposing sanctions on Saturday.

The move increased the international pressure on President Bashar al-Assad’s government following France’s proposal for “humanitarian corridors” to be set up to alleviate civilian suffering.

But Russia, China and their partners in the BRICS group of emerging economies warned against foreign intervention without U.N. backing and urged Assad to start talks with the opposition.

Under an Arab League initiative, Syria agreed to withdraw troops from urban centres, release political prisoners, start a dialogue with the opposition and allow monitors and international media into the country.

Since then hundreds of people, including civilians, security forces and army deserters, have been killed as the unrest which the United Nations says has claimed at least 3,500 lives since March continued unabated.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based opposition group, said at least 47 people were killed in Syria on Thursday, including 16 soldiers and 17 army deserters, mostly around the city of Homs and Rastan to the north.

“In the case that Syria does not sign the protocol...or that it later violates the commitments that it entails, and does not stop the killing or does not release the detainees ... (Arab League officials) will meet on Saturday to consider sanctions on Syria,” the Arab ministers said in a statement.

Possible sanctions, which were not intended to affect ordinary Syrians, included suspending flights to Syria, stopping dealings with the central bank, freezing Syrian government bank accounts and halting financial dealings.

They could also decide to stop commercial trade with the government “with the exception of strategic commodities so as not to impact the Syrian people”, the statement said.

Syria’s economy is already reeling from the eight months of unrest, aggravated by U.S. and European sanctions on oil exports and several state businesses.

“Humanitarian corridors”

After months in which the international community has seemed determined to avoid direct entanglement, the diplomatic consensus seems to be changing.

The Arab League suspended Syria’s membership two weeks ago, while this week the prime minister of neighbouring Turkey - a NATO member with the military wherewithal to mount a cross-border operation - told Assad to quit and said he should be mindful of the fate of fallen dictators such as Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini and Libya’s deposed leader Muammar Gaddafi.

France became the first major power to seek international intervention when it called for “humanitarian corridors”.

A Western diplomatic source said the French plan, with or without approval from Damascus, could link Syrian civilian centres to the frontiers of Turkey and Lebanon, to the Mediterranean coast or to an airport.

Its aim would enable transport of humanitarian supplies or medicines to a population that is suffering.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said the plan fell short of a military intervention but acknowledged that humanitarian convoys would need armed protection.

“There are two possible ways: That the international community, Arab League and the United Nations can get the regime to allow these humanitarian corridors,” he told French radio. “But if that isn’t the case we’d have to look at other solutions...with international observers.”

Asked if humanitarian convoys would need military protection, he said: “Of course... by international observers, but there is no question of military intervention in Syria.”

But after consultations among their deputy foreign ministers in Moscow on Thursday, Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa said that any intervention that did not come under the United Nations, writ must be ruled out.

“The only acceptable scenario for resolving the internal crisis in Syria is the immediate start of peaceful talks with the participation of all sides, as the Arab League initiative says”, a Russian Foreign Ministry statement said.

Russia and China last month vetoed a Western-drafted U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Syria’s government.

“Most dangerous phase”

The Syrian Observatory said 15 army deserters were killed in clashes with the military west of Rastan and in raids by security forces on Thursday. Eleven military and security personnel were killed by army deserters in the city of Houla.

Alongside the mainly peaceful protests, armed insurgents have increasingly attacked military targets in recent weeks.

State media have reported the funerals of 34 soldiers and police in the last four days. Since the outbreak of the uprising officials have blamed armed groups for the violence and say 1,100 members of the security forces have been killed.

“The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date,” the International Crisis Group said.

“Many in Syria and abroad are now banking on the regime’s imminent collapse and wagering that all then will be for the better. That is a luxury and optimism they cannot afford”.

Assad, 46, seems prepared to fight it out, playing on fears of a sectarian war if Syria’s complex ethno-sectarian mosaic shatters and relying on support of senior officials and the military to suppress the protests, inspired by Arab uprisings which toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.