• Home
• /
• Opinion

China has read Hong Kong protests wrong

The US bill was introduced in June, and China fought it at every step - in the House, the Senate and as it waited on the president's desk.

China was taken aback as news emerged of the pro-democratic landslide in Hong Kong's district council elections. Chinese media, after preparing articles based on assumptions of a pro-Beijing victory, were shocked into silence. Then China suffered another setback - US President Donald Trump signed into law the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, approved overwhelmingly by both congressional chambers. The dual shock seems to have led China, for now, to adopt a conciliatory posture, asking the victorious democrats to help strengthen Hong Kong's "one country, two systems."
From China's standpoint, both setbacks were grave. The US bill was introduced in June, and China fought it at every step - in the House, the Senate and as it waited on the president's desk. After the bill was signed, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng summoned the US ambassador, Terry Branstad, to protest "serious interference in China's internal affairs" and demand that the US refrain from implementing the law's provisions to "avoid further damage" to the bilateral relationship.
The electoral setback in Hong Kong was perhaps worse because it was unexpected. Before the election, China's supporters controlled all of Hong Kong's 18 district councils. While most analysts had forecast gains by the pro-democratic camp, no one had predicted the pan-democrats controlling 17 of 18 districts.
The shift in power at the district level has wider political implications. Democrats are poised for gains in the Legislative Council elections next year and will have more seats on the election committee that will produce the next chief executive. By law, six of the 70 seats in the Legislative Council are held by district councilors. Democrats are likely to gain a majority of those seats - key because many issues require a two-thirds majority. Democrats currently hold 24 seats and, at present, of the six district councilors on the Legislative Council, three are pro-establishment and three are pro-democracy. If pro-democrats hold all six seats, their control over a third of the seats would be firm.
As for the election committee, district councilors account for 117 seats, or almost 10 per cent of the 1,200-member committee. Democrats will get the vast majority of those seats. That is in addition to other seats they already hold, putting them close to controlling a third of the seats of in the election committee, with the ability to wield real power in a close election by offering support to one side or the other.
China's surprise at the electoral outcome was significant, reflecting ignorance of the situation on the ground and, worse, a belief in its own propaganda that most people in Hong Kong opposed the protesters, forming a silent majority. Even pro-establishment candidates had expressed concern over possible electoral setbacks linked to their support for a despised proposal on extradition law, allowing people in Hong Kong to be sent to mainland China for trial.
In the end, the pro-Beijing parties saw their seats fall precipitously from 300 to 58 while the democratic camp more than tripled from 124 to 389.
There are limits to what Beijing can do to retaliate against the US for the new Hong Kong Act, especially amid a struggling economy and the desire for trade talks to bear fruit. Beijing has made it clear that it will strengthen control over Hong Kong through appointment of the chief executive and other top officials and by interpretations of the Basic Law. The Hong Kong Act may deter China from overt interventions in Hong Kong. If that is not the case, expect implications for the city and China-US relations.
-Yale Global
Frank Ching is a journalist and author of  'Ancestors: 900 Years in the Life of a Chinese Family'