Output cut extension likely at Opec meet

Opec, Russia and nine other oil producers are already committed to cutting oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018.

The oil price, which has climbed to its highest level in two years above $63 a barrel, is expected to get a further fillip following a widely expected agreement by oil exporters to extend output cuts at the crucial Opec meeting in Vienna on November 30.

Opec, Russia and nine other oil producers are already committed to cutting oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. On Thursday, they will discuss extending the deal, either by six months or nine months.

Informed sources said while all members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) support extending their oil production cuts until the end of 2018, Russia has not yet committed to the proposal before their meeting in Vienna.

Moscow's position is that supporting oil prices above $60 a barrel will encourage US shale rivals to ramp up production even as global fuel stockpiles are depleting and crude prices are near two-year highs.

Mihir Kapadia, CEO and founder of Sun Global Investments, said oil markets had stabilised on Thursday as expectations that Opec would extend the production cutback has proved to be a counterweight to rising US crude production and the International Energy Agency report on the oil markets.

"The next big milestone for the oil markets would be the Opec meeting in Vienna on November 30, when the member countries and partners are expected to extend the production cutback to help tighten the supply. The corrective action by Opec this year proved to be the pivotal leverage to push the prices northward, and has helped create a sense of order and discipline in the oil markets since," said Kapadia.

Most analysts expect oil producers will discuss in Vienna the possibility of extending the cuts until the end of next year as they believe anything less than a nine-month extension would trigger a drop in oil prices.

Suhail bin Mohammed Faraj Al Mazrouei, the UAE Energy Minister, said the market is at a much better position than where it was last year thanks to the supply-cuts agreement.

"We are looking hopefully for another year of correction and recovery. It will not be an easy meeting and we always look at various scenarios," Al Mazrouei said on the sidelines of an event in Dubai.

"There is always debate - every country has an equal weight to voice their view," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih said in Dubai.

"We are looking forward to getting everybody engaged in a robust discussion and we'll come up with the right decision."
Goldman Sachs, one of the most active banks in commodity trading and oil producer hedging, said the outcome of the Opec meeting was uncertain.

"The absence of such a consensus is due to the uncertainty on the progress of the oil market rebalancing as well as Brent oil prices trading at $63 per barrel," the US bank said in a note.

"The push for a nine-month extension, four months before the cuts end and given an accelerating rebalancing further stands in the face of prior comments that the cuts should remain data-dependent to assess their effectiveness."

Ahead of the critical Vienna meeting, S&P Global Ratings has raised Brent oil price assumptions for 2018 to $55 and WTI unchanged at $50.

- issacjohn@khaleejtimes.com