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Edge for Congress-led front as Kerala goes to polls today

Minority votes could be key to outcome in several constituencies

Voters in Kerala will head to polls on Thursday without giving any clue to their electoral preference.

A consolidation of minority votes against Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) triggered by the nation-wide Modi hype was the most perceptible current visible during the campaigning but whom it will benefit has to be waited and seen.

As the campaign has not indicated a Hindu consolidation in favour of BJP, the minority votes accounting for 45 per cent of the total 24.3 million-electorate will be a key to the outcome in several constituencies.

The anti-Modi feeling is more intense among Muslims. Since their sole goal is to reduce the chances of Modi coming to power at the Centre, voting for either the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) or the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) may not make any difference.

There was a time when the Muslims voted en bloc to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and largely to the UDF. The situation has changed with the LDF making inroads into the Muslim vote bank. The defeat of the IUML at Manjeri (now Malappuram) in the 2004 polls has made the party realize that the community support can no more be taken for granted.

The fissures in the prominent EK Sunni faction, the predominant vote bank of the party, and the emergence of Indian National League (INL), People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), the political outfit of the Popular Front of India, and the Welfare Party of India, the political offshoot of Jamaat-e-Islami, has led to a division of Muslim votes which constitute 25.67 per cent of the total electorate.

While the INL has aligned with the LDF, the Welfare Party of India has entered the fray in Wayanad, Malappuram, Palghat, Chalakkudy and Attingal. The party is supporting an independent at Ponnani. The SDPI is contesting all the seats.

With 61 per cent, Malappuram tops in Muslim votes. It is followed by Kannur with a total Muslim electorate of 35.3 per cent. The other districts where Muslims account for more than 30 per cent electorate are Kasargod, Calicut and Ernakulam. The Muslim votes in Trichur, Wayanad, Palghat and Quilon are between 15 and 30 per cent. The Muslim votes will be a key factor in these eight constituencies.

Similarly, the Christian minority holds sway in Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, Trichur and Pathanamthitta constituencies with a voter strength ranging from 20 per cent to 40 per cent. The Christians, who mostly favoured the UDF in the past, has been shifting their loyalty lately. The Christians, who account for 18.03 per cent of the total electorate, are sharply divided this time.

The Kasthurirangan report on the conservation of the Western Ghats is the major issue troubling the Christian voters. Though the federal government has excluded 123 villages from the ecologically sensitive areas (ESA) list through a draft notification, the Christians in the Western Ghats areas, especially in Idukki, are not convinced.

The CPM is backing a Church-sponsored candidate in Idukki to take advantage of the widespread resentment against the UPA government. Though all the national leaders of the Congress, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, have assured full protection to the farmers in their election rallies in Kerala, how far they will help the Congress has to be waited and seen.

The rival fronts are also not sure about the Hindu votes with pre-poll surveys predicting an increase in BJP vote share. The additional votes the BJP gains can influence the outcome in constituencies like Kasargod, Pathanamthitta and Trivandrum, where the party has stretched its campaign for victory.

Though the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has entered fray targeting the voters disenchanted with the existing parties, the party’s influence will be marginal in 14 of the 17 seats the party is contesting. The party is expected to make its presence felt only in Trichur, Ernakulam and Trivandrum. However, the principal contestants there have not taken AAP seriously.

Both the UDF and the LDF claim majority of seats. While the Congress says 2014 will be a repeat of 1977, when it won all the 20 seats, the CPM claim it will be a repeat of 2004 when they won 18 seats. The pre-poll surveys give the UDF 11 to 17 seats and the LDF three to nine seats.

The pre-poll survey may come true if the UDF campaign centered round the political murders has moved the voters in the northern constituencies, where the LDF failed to make use of the anti-incumbency factor.

news@khaleejtimes.com