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A second coronavirus wave in Britain this winter could see 120,000 deaths in hospitals alone in a "reasonable worst-case scenario", scientists warned on Tuesday.
The Academy of Medical Sciences report, commissioned by the government's chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance, urged immediate action to mitigate a second wave.
With hospitals also battling seasonal flu cases, a second wave could eclipse the current outbreak resulting in up to 120,000 deaths between September and June next year.
The modelling does not include deaths in care homes or the wider community, and assumes no government action to prevent a fresh surge in cases.
Britain has seen almost 45,000 deaths so far in the first wave -- the highest toll in Europe and third only to the United States and Brazil.
The latest predictions are based on an assumption that the R rate -- which measures how many people an infected person is expected to infect -- rises to 1.7 from September.
The scientists also modelled for an lower increased R rate of 1.5, which would lead to 74,800 deaths.
The R rate is currently between 0.7 to 0.9 across the whole country, according to the latest government figure published last Friday.
Stephen Holgate, who led the study Academy of Medical Sciences study, said the 120,000 figure was "not a prediction but it is a possibility".
"The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately."
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