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Q The Syrian war has been raging for five years. Will it end soon, or is the situation getting worse?
A With Turkey recently entering Syrian territory to strike at Daesh and Kurdish targets, the number of groups involved in the conflict has increased. Multiple players will only make the violence worse. Who do you negotiate with to end the bloodshed? President Bashar Al Assad's forces and pro-government militia are ranged directly against terrorist groups like Daesh and Al Qaeda. Syrian forces are being backed by Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah troops on the ground, with air support from Russia. China is also considering a role on the side of coalition backing the president. The United States and Arab countries want Assad removed, and have been conducting air raids on terrorist Daesh positions for three years. They are also backing the Kurds on the ground, who are being targeted by Turkey.
Q Is the conflict spreading?
A The conflict has become more complex than when it began five years ago as part of the Arab Spring, when anti-government militia were given arms and resources to dislodge an authoritarian regime. Syria is now a war zone, that is widening with every passing day. Two superpowers - the US and Russia are directly involved. Weapons and fighters are being pushed in from all sides. It's a free-for-all with no end is sight. No side is talking, or is willing to talk under the UN banner.
The US and Russia are talking of a negotiated settlement. But with Russian intervention swinging it for Syrian government forces, will there be any compromises over President Assad? Will he make concessions?
Russian air strikes last year against Daesh and other rebel positions in Syria propped up forces loyal to the president, who were fighting with their backs to the wall. Iranian and Hezbollah troops had also suffered heavy losses, with some estimates putting it at 5,000 killed. Russia used the opportunity to make a return to the Middle East and the region after their rout in the Afghanistan war. President Vladimir Putin rushed to his ally's aid when President Barack Obama was busy withdrawing from the region and looking East to contain a rising China. Russian backing has given Assad a new lease of power. A timeframe for his exit was being discussed last year, but it now appears that he's here to stay.
Why is the Syrian war so complex, so vexed?
In Syria, there are rebels of every hue. There are moderates and extremists. In fact, the country is sucking in sectarianism. Al Qaeda and the Daesh are entrenched; there are groups like Al Nusra; Syrian forces are battling them; outsiders like the Hezbollah add to the sectarian mix; Daesh wants to carve out a new state. Even if Assad is overthrown, which is unlikely at this point in time, warring groups will continue fighting each other to retain territory and resources.
Holding on to gains is vital for these disparate groups and powers supporting them and their causes. Assad's exit - if it ever happens - will lead to all-out sectarian war. We only have to look to Iraq as an example.
How is the war affecting the people? How many have been killed? How many have left their homes?
The Syrian crisis is the worst humanitarian crisis after World War II. Half the country's pre-war population, or more than 11 million people have been killed or forced to flee their homes, according to the charity MercyCorps. Nearly 250,000 Syrians have been killed, half of them civilians; 4.5 million people have fled the country.
The United Nations is seeking $7.7 billion this year to help people in distress.
Who has committed the most war crimes?
All warring parties have committed horrible war crimes, according to the United Nations. The Assad regime crossed the red line set by US President Obama in 2013 when the Syrian army fired rockets tipped with the nerve gas sarin on rebel-held pockets in Damascus.
The US then considered a full-fledged military intervention with boots on the ground, but held back. Assad, under pressure, agreed to destroy his entire arsenal of chemical weapons.
allan@khaleejtimes.com
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