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No gas, we mean business

Friday's strike, at best, was a one-off mission, punishment for the gassing of a rebel-held town in Idlib last week

The US missile strikes on Syria's Shayrat airbase will not swing the course of the conflict in favour of the rebels and other opposition forces fighting Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. It could, however, land a psychological blow on Assad's plans to crush his opponents. US President Donald Trump, with this mission, has made clear to Assad and his backer Russia that he will act at the opportune time. 'Don't test me. I know how to draw a red line overnight and will strike on my own if that line is crossed unlike my predecessor Barack Obama,' is the message he is sending out to his critics and foes at home and abroad.
Friday's strike, at best, was a one-off mission, punishment for the gassing of a rebel-held town in Idlib last week that killed and wounded hundreds. The precision attack with 59 Tomahawk missiles fired from US Navy warships in the Mediterranean Sea had an objective to disable the Syrian miltary's air defence and
attack aircraft at the base. Defence experts said the aircraft may have been used to deliver the deadly nerve agent Sarin.
"Shayrat air base has traditionally been home to air defence and attack aircraft, with the Su-22M4 of the 677^th and 685^th Squadrons most likely to be utilised in an air-to-ground strike role that would potentially deliver chemical weapons such as Sarin," said Reed Foster, Military Capabilities Analyst, Jane's.
It will weaken the regime's air defence systems but there's no guarantee that Assad will not order another toxin attack to wrest control.
"Although the strike will further weaken the overall air defence and ground attack capabilities of the Syria's air force, it will not significantly diminish the ability of the Assad regime to conduct further chemical weapons attacks. The varied airborne delivery mechanisms traditionally within Syrian forces' inventories means that attacking this one base will not take out their total capabilities."
The US is certain that it was Assad's planes which gassed innocents. "We have a very high level of confidence that the attacks were carried out by aircraft under the direction of the Bashar Al Assad regime, and we also have very high confidence that the attacks involved the use of sarin nerve gas. At least the past three attacks, we have fairly high - we have high confidence on that," said Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State in a Press release.
He didn't have nice words for Russia which is believed to have close ties with Trump and his aides. Moscow has failed in its responsibility to deliver on the commitment to destroy Assad's chemical stockpiles in 2013. "So either Russia has been complicit or Russia has been simply incompetent in its ability to deliver on its end of that agreement," Tillerson said.
Assad should not get the idea that it is okay to use chemical weapons, he said. It's important that some action be taken on "behalf of the international community to make clear that the use of chemical weapons continues to be a violation of international norms". US strikes were, therefore, necessary to soften up Syria's air defences before Washington decides on a wider campaign using fighter aircraft, said Foster. But the analyst is not convinced why Assad decided to gas civilians to death when he was on top against the rebels.
"What is perhaps less clear is the strategic motivations behind the original chemical weapons attack attributed to the Assad regime. The attack itself opened the way for further US or Western military intervention to degrade Syrian military capabilities at a time where the momentum has decidedly been behind Russian-backed Syrian forces in their ongoing offensive against various rebel factions," said Foster.
allan@khaleejtimes.com