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The Opec will need to extend supply cuts when it meets next week to end years of global oil oversupply, oil ministers from two Opec members said, just over a week before the group meets to discuss supply policy.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, non-member Russia and nine other producers agreed to curb oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. They are expected to extend the deal at a November 30 meeting in Vienna.
Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is lobbying oil ministers to extend output cuts by nine months, sources familiar with the matter said.
The Opec has been successful in bringing global oil inventories closer to their five-year average, but the group needs more time to tighten supply further, he said.
The oil market has found some balance as inventories decline, Venezuela's oil minister Eulogio Del Pino said at the same event. He put the optimal price for crude at between $60 and $70 a barrel to encourage investment.
Rising US shale oil production has made it harder for the Opec to reduce the global glut. US output hit a weekly record this week at more than 9.6 million bpd, approaching the 10 million bpd monthly record output levels reached in the 1970s.
The gas market, which is also facing oversupply due to growing output of shale gas and rising production of liquefied natural gas (LNG), could find a balance around 2025 after the excess of supply peaks in 2020. The chairman of Spain's Repsol, Antonio Brufau, said the global gas market is undergoing a deep transformation with rising LNG supply, lower production costs and traditional suppliers considering non-conventional projects such as shale.
"LNG is shaking up the market," Brufau said on the sidelines of a gas exporters' meeting in Santa Cruz, Bolivia on Wednesday.
Russia effect
Meanwhile, Russia's economic growth in October was negatively affected by a global agreement between members of the Opec and Russia to curb crude oil production, Russia's economy minister said on Thursday.
Maxim Oreshkin's comments are the first by a senior Russian official giving a negative assessment of the deal, in which Russia joined the Opec and others in cutting output from January by about 1.8 million barrels per day to end a supply glut.The minister was speaking a week before Russia and the Opec meet in Vienna. It is now due to expire on March 31.
Under the deal, Russia agreed to cut output by 300,000 bpd from its level in October 2016. "Because of the Opec deal we have a negative direct impact from oil production, as well as indirect effects related to low investment activity due to production limits," Oreshkin said.
Russia's oil-dependent economy grew 1.8 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017, slowing from 2.5 per cent in the second quarter, the best annual rate since the third quarter of 2012, data showed this month. Oreshkin and other officials have said the Russian economy was on track to grow by more than two per cent after two years of recession. But data on retail sales and other areas have raised questions about the durability of the recovery.
Oreshkin told reporters that annual inflation in Russia had slowed to 2.4-2.5 per cent, adding that the ministry retained its full-year inflation forecast of up to 2.8 per cent.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday Russia would determine its position on a extending the oil pact later in November. Opec meets in Vienna on November 30.
Top crude exporter Saudi Arabia has been lobbying oil ministers to agree to a nine-month extension at next week's meeting, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
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