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BA shares slump on transatlantic competition fears

The European Commission said on Friday it had reached a provisional agreement with the United States over a so-called ‘open skies’ deal to open their transatlantic aviation markets in a bid to boost traffic and jobs.

Analysts said British Airways had most to lose from a deal, because it would open up competition on flights from London’s Heathrow Airport to the United States.

The lucrative transatlantic route contributes a major slice of BA’s profits and increased competition could drive down fares, hitting the airline’s revenues.

Currently, direct transatlantic flights from Heathrow are limited to British Airways (BA), Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines and American Airlines.

‘From BA’s perspective, the negative is the breaking-up of the cartel (over flights from) Heathrow to the U.S.,’ said Exane analyst Nick van den Brul.

‘Any time you break up a cartel the implication is that prices are going to fall and everybody knows that BA’s yields on the north Atlantic are what drives its profits.’

Deutsche Bank analysts estimated the deal could lead to a 15 percent decline in prices on transatlantic flights, and that this could hit BA’s revenues by 491 million pounds ($944 million) in the first year of implementation.

At 0940 GMT, BA shares were down 8.4 percent at 487 pence, the biggest fall on the UK’s benchmark FTSE-100 index and valuing the firm at about 5.6 billion pounds.

The United States and Europe have been working for years on a way to increase competition between EU and US airlines and replace bilateral agreements between Washington and some EU member nations with a broader pact to include more countries.

But a tentative deal in November 2005 had remained in limbo after Washington withdrew a proposal that would have eased restrictions on foreign investment in US airlines.

The provisional deal reached on Friday sought to address EU concerns about ownership and control.

Washington will not change rules limiting foreign ownership of voting rights in US carriers to 25 percent, but the pact would make it easier for EU companies to buy up to 100 percent of non-voting shares, sources familiar with the deal said.

BA, however, was not impressed.

‘We don’t believe it’s a good deal for Europe or the UK,’ a spokeswoman said.

The European Commission said the provisional agreement would be presented to EU transport ministers later this month.

BA also said on Monday that it would take an extra 20-million-pound charge on the sale of its regional business, BA Connect, to Flybe.

Traders said its shares were also suffering from news that pilots at its GB Airways franchise were voting on possible industrial action over the Easter holidays in a dispute over working practices.