• Home
• /
• Opinion

Daesh targets Libyan oil to make trouble

The rationale is to stop others from getting money from oil sales, as well as weakening the state.

When the Daesh first set its eyes on Libya, it no doubt saw fertile soil for conquest in a lawless land being fought over by myriad political and military factions.
The security vacuum left by the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011 made Libya a jihadist destination of choice after Syria and Iraq. And its position as a gateway to Europe and Africa, along with the presence of vast oil and gas reserves, only increased the attraction.
Now a string of recent Daesh attacks on oil regions and facilities have stirred concerns that Daesh, which has profited greatly from the sale of Syrian and Iraqi oil, assets which have been targeted by US-led airstrikes, could be seeking to replace that revenue with Libyan reserves.
Abul-Mughira Al-Qahtani, identified by Daesh late last summer as the leader of its Libya branch, stressed in an interview the strategic importance of controlling this "well of resources that cannot dry," using them to the benefit of Muslims worldwide and to the detriment of non-believers.
"The control of the Daesh over this region will lead to economic breakdowns, especially for Italy and the rest of the European states," he told the Daesh propaganda magazine Dabiq.
In the near term, however, the greatest threat is to the welfare of Libya's citizens and to the financial viability of a future Tripoli-based government due to take power under a UN-brokered deal. And the goal of Daesh, which reportedly has some 3,000 fighters in Libya, seems to be to disrupt oil exports, rather than take control of oilfields.
According to analysts, the Daesh goal for now is to disrupt the potential revenue streams of the state versus directly exploiting or exporting these resources.
"Daesh in Libya seems more interested in destroying oil installations or at least stopping the production rather than, as in Syria, controlling the fields and selling the oil," says Mattia Toaldo, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"Bear in mind that oil income now goes into the coffers of the Central Bank, which in turn pays all salaries, including those of the militias which could potentially compete with Daesh," adds Toaldo.
He points out that the vast size and geography of Libya makes it more costly to transport oil by trucks. Daesh would also face tough competition from rival smugglers of petrol and other refined products, a longstanding tradition in a country that borders Tunisia, Algeria, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and Egypt.
In a December 2015 report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned that "the dysfunctional security system for oil and gas infrastructure presents a tempting target for Daesh militants." Between February and March last year, militants attacked the Mabruk, Ghani, and Dahra oil fields in the central Sirte basin, killing many of the guards and kidnapping foreign oil workers.
In October, they took aim at the Sidra port, which used to receive 200 ships per year and had a loading volume of 447,00 barrels per day in January 2011, according to the Libya Oil Almanac.
ICG's senior Libya analyst, Claudia Gazzini, says the rationale of such attacks is to stop "...states from getting money from oil sales" as well as weakening the state. But it is "highly improbable" that Daesh will reach a stage whereby it can export refined fuels - even if it were to capture and control the oil terminals.
Many hope that the UN-brokered unity government, which received the backing of some representatives from rival administrations in the east and west, will help the country change course. The stakes are high for Europe, which fears both an ascendant Daesh in Libya and the flow of migrants using it as a launching pad to cross the Mediterranean.
The European Union has pledged $108 million to help Libya fight Daesh, as soon as the unity government comes to power. Still, given the future government's broad array of opponents, many are pessimistic, including oil companies, which have either halted or scaled back their operations in Libya.
The Christian Science Monitor