Karnataka polls to be first of 4 'semi-finals' before 2024 LS elections

The Karnataka Assembly polls would be the first of the four "semi-finals" between the BJP and the Congress before the 2024 general elections, and the notion of a sympathy factor for the grand old party post the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi from the Lok Sabha would also be put to test in the high-stakes contest.

Four assembly elections — Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — are scheduled for this year in which the BJP and the Congress are in a direct contest and they would set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The four states together have 93 Lok Sabha seats, which account for 17 per cent of its total strength, but they are close to 50 per cent of about 190 seats where BJP and Congress were in a direct fight in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

In Karnataka, the Congress' vote share rose marginally to 38 per cent in the 2018 assembly elections from 36.6 per cent in 2013 but its tally fell from 122 to 78. On the other hand, BJP's vote share was marginally lower than that of Congress but at 36.2 per cent it recorded the highest so far and also managed to bag more seats at 104, though it fell short of nine seats for a comfortable majority in a House of 224. The BJP had won 40 seats in 2013 state elections.

The BJP currently has 119 seats, followed by the Congress with 75. The JD (S) has 28 MLAs, while two seats are vacant.

Experts feel that the polls in Karnataka will indicate which way the political wind is blowing but one should not get carried away by the result as the issues at play in elections in states and at the national level differ.

Sanjay K Pandey, political commentator and professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), said the Karnataka polls would be the first of the "four semi-finals" before 2024 polls. He, however, also cautioned not to read too much in the results as state polls are often guided by different issues.

"More than the BJP, it is a test for the Congress as to whether it can put up a spirited fight before the 2024 finale," Pandey said.

The contest in Karnataka is largely between the BJP and the Congress but JD(S) in the past has proven to be a crucial cog in the political wheel.

For the Congress, in Karnataka, it has been hitting the right notes after the passage of the Bharat Jodo Yatra last year despite the looming shadow of simmering tensions between chief ministerial hopefuls Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar.

The party has organised a state-wide bus tour called 'Praja Dhwani Yatra', jointly led by party state unit president Shivakumar and leader of the opposition in the state assembly, Siddaramaiah.

The Congress has described the Bharat Jodo Yatra as a "booster dose" but whether it will provide the party a new lease of life in election-bound states such as Karnataka is a million-dollar question.

Another crucial aspect would be whether the Congress can capitalise on the sympathy factor following Rahul Gandhi's disqualification from Lok Sabha and whether it would work electorally.

The Congress seems to be fighting the polls in Karnataka so far on the strength of its local leadership and focusing on issues concerning the state, making corruption a central theme of its campaigning. The polls are also a prestige battle for the grand old party with a Kannadiga M Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from Kalaburagi district, at its helm as the national president.

For the BJP also, it is a crucial election as if it manages to retain power in the state, the only one it rules in the south, its push for power in other southern states could also get a boost.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi launching a number of projects in Karnataka in the run-up to the announcement of the assembly polls, the BJP is confident that the prime minister's appeal and his fervent call for continuing the "double-engine" government in the state will combine with its development narrative to give it an edge over the Congress.

In a state where the Congress continues to remain robust organisationally and has strong regional satraps, the BJP top brass believes that larger factors overshadow local issues to quell the opposition challenge, as seen in several assembly polls.

It is of the view that its disciplined organisational machinery will be in a better position to deal with any disaffection within its ranks born out of ticket distribution and internal rivalries than the Congress.