Anticipatory approach needed to prevent next food crisis

It can be hard to wrap one’s head around such numbers. But behind the statistics are individual human lives.

The toxic cocktail of climate change, conflict, and Covid-19 is making itself felt most intensely in the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries. As a result, a record 235 million people worldwide will need humanitarian assistance and protection in 2021 — an increase of 40 per cent from last year.

It can be hard to wrap one’s head around such numbers. But behind the statistics are individual human lives. For the most vulnerable people, the pandemic’s secondary effects — not the coronavirus itself – will cause the most damage. And the hunger pandemic triggered by Covid-19 threatens to be the biggest killer.

The number of chronically hungry people increased by an estimated 130 million last year, to more than 800 million — about eight times the total number of Covid-19 cases to date.

Countries affected by conflict and climate change are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. Empty stomachs can stunt whole generations.

Moreover, the spectre of multiple famines looms just as government budgets are being stretched by efforts to protect populations and economies from the pandemic. International solidarity to help prevent such disasters may look like a hard sell just now. But preventing famine and food insecurity is a smart investment for everyone.

Still, we must ensure that we are getting the most from every dollar we spend. That is why the United Nations and the World Bank are increasingly investing in an anticipatory approach to humanitarian need. It has become ever clearer that acting early to address humanitarian needs ahead of a crisis is more effective, dignified, and cost-efficient than waiting until disaster has struck. Such a strategy also protects hard-won development gains.

For example, in Bangladesh last year, the United Nations and the Red Cross/Red Crescent provided vulnerable people with cash so that they could get themselves and their livestock out of harm’s way before devastating floods hit. This effort cost half as much as picking up the pieces afterward would have done, and it helped more people. We are applying a similar anticipatory approach to the growing hunger pandemic, by taking action before food emergencies turn into full-blown famines. This involves addressing long-term drivers of food insecurity – including vulnerability to extreme weather and pests, low incomes, fragile value chains, and conflict – in order to prevent new crises down the road.

In line with this goal, the International Development Association (IDA, the World Bank’s fund for the poorest countries) committed $5.3 billion for food security in the six months between April and October 2020. This sum comprised a mix of short-term Covid-19 responses and investments to address the longer-term causes of food insecurity.