Global M&A set for positive start to year ahead with strong finish in 2022

Global dealmakers achieved a second consecutive quarter of market outperformance in the last three months of 2022, according to research on completed deals from WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM). Based on share price performance, companies making M&A deals outclassed the wider market[1] by +5.2pp (percentage points) for acquisitions valued over $100 million between October and December 2022. This follows a positive performance of +3.9pp in the previous quarter.

Run in partnership with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School, the full year figures for 2022 still reveal a slight underperformance by buyers of -0.8pp compared to non-acquirers, despite the upturn in acquirer performance in the second half of the year. This is in contrast to a positive full year performance of +1.4pp in 2021. Deal volume in 2022 was also significantly down by 19 per cent with 853 deals completed globally, compared to 1047 deals in 2021, driven by a marked slowdown in M&A activity in North America.

Steve Clements, head of M&A Consulting in the Middle East, WTW, said: “While geopolitical tensions, inflation and rising interest rates had an inevitable impact last year on deal activity and performance, the extraordinary pace set in 2021 was also unsustainable. Rather than being interpreted as a downward trend, current M&A volumes reflect a return to healthy pre-pandemic levels.

“Macroeconomic uncertainty will persist in 2023, yet deals will still get done. Despite the bar being raised on difficulty, the positive M&A performance sustained over the last two quarters clearly indicates the ability of strategic buyers to succeed in challenging environments. By looking at target companies with an even finer lens, investing more time and resources to ensure quality due diligence, dealmakers will be well-placed to generate value and drive longer-term growth from deals.”

North America led the slowdown in activity, with acquirers closing 402 deals in 2022, 35 per cent fewer compared to the 614 deals completed in 2021. In contrast, deal volumes have been more stable in Europe and Asia Pacific, with both regions seeing a marginal increase in M&A activity during the last 12 months. European acquirers completed 203 deals in 2022 compared to 199 in 2021, while 200 deals were completed by Asia Pacific dealmakers in 2022 compared to 196 the previous year.

While Asia Pacific buyers outperformed their regional index by +10.1pp for 2022, the full year figures show an annual underperformance across other regions, with North American and European buyers underperforming their industry peers by -1.9pp and -5.7pp respectively.

In contrast to the full year results, the final three months of 2022 showed a stronger global performance not only by Asia Pacific dealmakers (+10.5pp) but also in North America where acquirers also strongly outperformed their regional index (+9.4pp). Only dealmakers from Europe continued to underperform their index by -2.6pp during the final quarter of 2022.

5 M&A trends for 2023

Steve Clements shares his top trends for the year ahead:

1. Return of the ‘Lipstick Effect’

Buyers to increasingly focus on smaller deals, as recessionary fears trigger a ‘lipstick effect’: when economic downturns lead to a rise in spending on smaller, more affordable – rather than big ticket, more expensive – goods. For the first time in over three years no mega deals (valued over $10 billion) were closed during Q3 2022, and large deals (valued over $1 billion) were significantly down compared to the same period in 2021 (49 vs 67), according to WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor, run in partnership with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School.

2. Opportunities in distressed M&A

The difficult operating environment will drive an increase in companies jettisoning non-core assets in the pursuit of long-term value creation. Some deals will be strategic - energy firms continuing to divest carbon intensive assets – while the ongoing economic uncertainty will force other companies to sell assets - the retail and leisure sectors often having a higher operating leverage. This can create opportunities for buyers to expand product lines, services or supply chains at a reduced rate.

3. Technology M&A: From defence to offence

> 208 large deals closed in 2022 compared to 292 in 2021