Dubai’s 10-month residential property deals surpass full 2022 level

Residential transactions in Dubai during the first 10 months of 2023 surpassed last year’s record total transactions, underscoring the sustained demand surge for secondary market and off-plan properties from both overseas investors and new migrants.

A total of 93,590 residential transactions were recorded outstripping the 2022 full-year total of 92,178, which was the highest total ever recorded in a year until now, data from CBRE’s latest Dubai Residential Market Snapshot shows.

However, the number of transactions in October marked a drop of 23.6 per cent from the year prior to 6,407 while off-plan transactions declined significantly by 57.2 per cent. Secondary market transactions grew by 29.5 per cent in October.

ValuStrat’s Q3 Real Estate Research shows net migration to Dubai in the initial nine months of 2023 surpassed the entirety of 2022, showing a 2.2 per cent annual net population increase as of end of September 2023, as opposed to 2.1 per cent per cent annual growth in 2022. The third quarter, according to the research, witnessed the highest quarterly capital gains in a decade. The VPI (ValuStrat Property Index) grew a record 6.1 per cent QoQ to reach 96.6 points, 15.1 per cent higher than last year. Villa valuations surpassed peaks seen in 2014 by 2.6 per cent, with villa prices increasing by 19.8 per cent YoY and 7.6 per cent QoQ to reach 123.6 VPI points.

The highest quarterly performers were Palm Jumeirah (9.5 per cent), Jumeirah Islands (9.5 per cent), Dubai Hills Estate (9.3 per cent), and Mudon (9.0 per cent). The apartment VPI saw decade-long record capital gains, up 4.8 per cent QoQ to reach 79.7 points, up 11 per cent YoY, 29.2 per cent below peaks of 2014. The highest quarterly performers were Discovery Gardens (7.5 per cent), The Greens (7.3 per cent), Palm Jumeirah (6.7 per cent), and Dubailand Residence Complex (6.6 per cent).

Taimur Khan, head of Research – Mena at CBRE in Dubai, said while the total transaction volumes have decreased in October compared to last year, it does not mean that demand has weakened.

“Given high levels of demand for off-plan properties and deteriorating levels of supply, off-plan sales have fallen by 57.2 per cent in the year to October 2023. The absorption that we have seen within the off-plan segment of the market has been almost unprecedented. Looking at off-plan sales of units that were launched from 2022 onwards, our headline analysis shows that 67.5 per cent of these units have been sold to date, and for prime and core markets, this number is north of 90 per cent on average,” said Khan.

Dubai’s average residential prices increased by 19.1 per cent in the year to October 2023, marginally down from the 19.6 per cent rate of growth registered a month earlier. Over the same period, average apartment and villa prices rose by 18.7 per cent and 21.4 per cent, respectively. In October 2023, average apartment prices stood at Dh1,364 per square foot, and average villa prices stood at Dh1,649 per square foot. Although the average apartment sales rates per square foot still sit at 8.3 per cent below the 2014 high, a number of communities have already topped their 2014 levels. On the other hand, the average villa sales rates have surpassed their 2014 figures by 14.1 per cent.

In the apartment segment of the market, Downtown Dubai recorded the highest sales rate per square foot at Dh2,500, whereas, in the villa segment of the market, Palm Jumeirah recorded the highest sales rate per square foot at Dh5,125, the CBRE report said.

Dubai’s rental market also continued to experience moderation in growth rates since the start of the year. In the year to October 2023, average rents in Dubai increased by 19.7 per cent, registering a decline from the 20.6 per cent growth recorded in September 2023. Over this period, average apartment rents rose by 19.9 per cent, and average villa rents grew by 18.0 per cent. As at October 2023, the average yearly apartment and villa asking rents stood at Dh110,080 and Dh322,891, respectively. The highest yearly apartment and villa rents were respectively found in Palm Jumeirah, with average rents at Dh256,204, and in Al Barari, where average rents reached Dh1,096,675.

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