Romney battles to avoid home-state embarrassment

Romney was seen just weeks ago as an easy winner in the industrial Midwestern state of Michigan, where his father once served as governor and chief of a now-defunct automaker. But that was before Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, swept contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri earlier this month.

Throughout the Republican campaign, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has had trouble winning favor with the deeply conservative party base, and distrust of his moderate background has only grown under Santorum’s hard-right campaign message ahead of the Michigan vote.

Whoever wins Michigan will gain crucial momentum. Michigan is a prelude to the Washington state caucuses on Saturday, with 40 delegates at stake, and especially Super Tuesday on March 6, when 10 primaries and caucuses are on the ballot with 419 delegates.

Arizona, which also holds its primary on Tuesday, has essentially been ceded by Santorum. Over the weekend, Romney, already the clear favorite, won the endorsement of the state’s conservative governor. He is heavily supported because of his tough stand on illegal immigration, a key issue in the far Western state with a long border with Mexico. Arizona also has a sizable Mormon population likely to back Romney, a member of a prominent Mormon family.

The other two candidates, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, and libertarian-leaning Texas congressman Ron Paul are far behind in polls in Michigan and Arizona.

The Republican establishment, which backs Romney, fears that Santorum — should he amass the needed 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination — would be unable to defeat Obama in November. Polls seem to back that fear, with independent voters moving back into the Obama camp. Those voters — members of neither party — were critical to Obama’s victory in 2008. But they abandoned Democrats in droves in the 2010 election that saw Republicans reclaim the majority in the House of Representatives.

The return of support from independents and women has boosted Obama’s approval rating. He has regained ground in tandem with signs that the US economy is regaining steam after a prolonged period of high unemployment and low growth. But the rebound remains fragile.

In Michigan, latest polling shows Romney and Santorum in a dead heat. Santorum’s surge in the polls has forced Romney to work hard in Michigan over the past week. He’s hosted nearly a dozen public events as he and his allies have spent more than $2 million on local television advertising. Both candidates planned to campaign in the state Tuesday in the hours before polls close.

A Santorum win could further fuel his momentum and validate his campaigning on core social issues rather than the economy, Romney’s strong suit. He became a multimillionaire as head of a private equity firm before winning the governorship in Massachusetts.

Santorum is espousing strictly conservative positions on issues ranging from the role of religion to abortion, education and women in the workplace.

And while Santorum pressed his tax plan to spur manufacturing and economic growth Monday, he returned to promoting a greater role for religion.

‘Freedom to worship is not just what you do in the sanctuary, it’s how you practice your faith outside of the sanctuary,’ Santorum said.

Santorum has also said in recent days that former President John F. Kennedy’s 1960 campaign speech explaining his Catholic faith made him want ‘to throw up.’

Kennedy was the first Catholic president and his religion was a major issue in that election 52 years ago. Kennedy’s speech back then assured voters he would hold fast to the US Constitution’s directive on the separation of church and state.

Santorum, also a Catholic, questions restraint on the role of religious institutions in US governance.

Romney, a Mormon who has treaded carefully on the subject of religion, shifted his line of attack from the cultural issues and conservative rhetoric he too was using over the weekend. He has returned to the economy.

‘I understand why jobs go, why they come, I understand what happens to corporate profit, where it goes if the government takes it,’ Romney told a crowd at an electrical warehouse.

That also was in contrast to Romney, just days ago, highlighting his own socially conservative credentials, telling an event with the small-government, low-tax tea party that he had been against abortion as Massachusetts governor and was still in that camp. Romney’s record in Massachusetts was far more moderate on the hot-button abortion issue.

Santorum is trying to counter Romney’s huge advantage in campaign funds and organization by putting together an unusual coalition of tea party activists, religious conservatives and even Democrats to topple Romney in Michigan.

Santorum confirmed on the eve of the election that he had targeted Michigan Democrats with automated phone calls encouraging them to vote against Romney. Only declared Republicans may vote in Tuesday’s primary, but party rules allow voters to change their affiliation temporarily on the spot. The potential involvement of Democrats adds a new twist to a contest already expected to have significant implications for Romney’s White House bid.

No matter the top finisher, Romney and Santorum stand to split the 30 delegates at stake because Michigan distributes delegates proportionally. By contrast, Romney is favored to capture all 29 delegates in Arizona, which features a winner-take-all system.

Romney has 123 delegates to 72 for Santorum, 32 for Gingrich and 19 for Paul in the Associated Press count, with 1,144 required to win the party nomination at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida.