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US-Iran peace deal to end war set to drive return of Indian workers to Gulf
There is a lot of construction work that will have to be taken up; this will accelerate the flow of people from Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and other parts of India over the coming weeks
- PUBLISHED: Sat 20 Jun 2026, 6:00 AM
[Editor's Note: Follow Khaleej Times live blog for the latest regional developments with the US-Iran deal now signed.]
The US-Iran interim peace deal, which is likely to end the war in the Middle East, will result in the return of tens of thousands of Indians to the region, many of who had left for their homes since late February.
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The start of the war saw hundreds of thousands of Indians heading home from the region, according to the Indian government.
A spokesperson of the Indian External Affairs Ministry had revealed that almost a quarter million Indians working in the Gulf had returned home in just about 20 days after the outbreak of the war on February 28.
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The numbers swelled over the following weeks, as thousands more came back to India. With US President Donald Trump digitally signing the interim peace agreement with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, all eyes are now on the likely return of many of the Indians who had rushed back home.
“A lot of people returned home after the outbreak of war in end-February, but I expect most of them will soon start heading back to the Gulf,” S. Irudaya Rajan, founder chair, The International Institute of Migration & Development, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, told Khaleej Times over the weekend.
“There is a lot of construction work that will have to be taken up and this will accelerate the flow of people from Kerala.” But Rajan noted many people above 50 who had returned following the outbreak of war in February may not necessarily return now and would be content to stay back in their towns and villages.
“But I see a lot many people heading to the Gulf from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan over the coming weeks,” he said. In fact, on two other occasions —the Kuwait war and Covid pandemic — hundreds of thousands of Indians had returned home from the Gulf. But once normalcy got restored, the same or even more numbers of people headed back to the Gulf.
Renewed demand for services
According to Rajan, the renewed demand for services in various sectors in the Gulf region could trigger another rush of aspirants from Kerala and other Indian states, including many of those who had returned over the past few months.
Dr Divya Balan, an assistant professor of International Studies at Flame University, Pune, has been closely associated with several NRI bodies and individuals in the Gulf for long.
“When the war began towards the end of February, it saw the return of many Indians from the Gulf, just as it had happened during Covid-19,” she told this correspondent. “Many Indians in the region headed back to their homes in Kerala after the February war escalated. And with stability and peace getting restored, a lot of them will start returning to the Gulf.”
Balan added the increasingly many Keralites working and living in the Gulf are also setting up their own small-sized businesses and are keen to expand their operations, instead of returning home.
Some of them shut down their establishments when the war cut into their revenues and returned to Kerala. “I know one person who ventured into hospitality, but the war saw a sharp drop in people hiring his vacation homes.” Many of the entrepreneurs returned home after the US-Israel-Iran war began.
Changing profiles
The return migration has different levels, Balan noted. For instance, those who are getting older think of settling down at home, starting a small business or getting into farming. But those in the productive age (between 20 and 45) do not want retirement and return to the Gulf, or increasingly to Germany, Europe and even Japan, Balan explained. “The economic situation in Kerala is not so good, and many who head to the Gulf earn four times more than what they would have in the state,” she added.
Their profile is also changing. In the past, many took to low-skilled jobs, but increasingly Keralites are building careers in the Gulf in sectors like healthcare, IT and hospitality.
Balan recalled an ageing woman in Kerala telling her that she did not want her son to return to the Gulf now that the war has ended. But she realised that he had to venture abroad looking for better opportunities. And people in Kerala have been migrating abroad since the 1960s. “It is ingrained in many of them that life is better overseas and they venture out.”
