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Super El Niño likely to hit Philippines and neighbouring countries later this year
The Philippine weather bureau said the probability of a moderate to strong El Niño in the last quarter of the year until early 2027, has risen from 55 per cent in March to 92 per cent in April
- PUBLISHED: Thu 16 Apr 2026, 5:01 PM
A “super El Niño” phenomenon is very likely to punish the Philippines and its neighboring countries in the West Pacific in the latter part of the year, weather experts warn.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the probability of a moderate to strong El Niño in the last quarter of the year until early 2027, has risen from 55 per cent in March to 92 per cent in April.
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"This will be upgraded into El Niño Alert this month, projecting the phenomenon to emerge in from July to September," noted PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterised by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years. It causes weakened trade winds that disrupt global weather, resulting in increased flooding, droughts, and higher global temperatures.
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Unlike current weather patterns in the Middle East exemplified by unusual volume of rain, El Niño is mostly characterised by below-normal rainfall and extreme heat lasting months.
"During El Niño, rainfall conditions are expected to be below normal," Servando said.
The phenomenon, however, produces stronger typhoons and destructive flooding when they occur.
The weather expert said it is expected that Indonesia will likewise experience as its neighboring country’s projections are consistent with the Philippines’.
"Indonesia’s climate is similar to the Philippines, and the local climate is influenced by climate variability such as El Niño," Servando said.
Massive agricultural damage through severe water shortages and high temperatures are to be expected within the year, PAGASA said as El Niño historically causes reduced rice and corn yields, increased pest infestations, higher fuel costs for irrigation pumps, and diminished income for farmers and fisher folk, leading to food insecurity.