India set to overtake China as world's most populous nation

With 27.3% of its population aged between 15 and 29 years, it is among the youngest countries in the world

By Reuters

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FILE. Photo: AFP
FILE. Photo: AFP

Published: Thu 19 Jan 2023, 11:06 AM

Last updated: Thu 19 Jan 2023, 11:10 AM

India is set to become the world's most populous country this year, overtaking China with its 1.4 billion population. As per the United Nations (UN), "India is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country even though its population growth has been slowing down."

China's population shrank last year for the first time in more than six decades, official data showed Tuesday, as the birth rate slows in the face of mounting financial pressures and shifting social attitudes.


The last time China's population declined was in the early 1960s, when the country was battling the worst famine in its modern history, a result of the disastrous Mao Zedong agricultural policy known as the Great Leap Forward.

China ended its strict one-child policy -- imposed in the 1980s owing to fears of overpopulation -- in 2016 and began allowing couples to have three children in 2021.


Chart showing historic and projected population of India and China. India is projected to surpass that of China in 2023, based UN's World Population Prospects - AFP
Chart showing historic and projected population of India and China. India is projected to surpass that of China in 2023, based UN's World Population Prospects - AFP

Following are some key points about India's demography, according to government data:

- India estimates its population at 1.38 billion, compared to China's 1.4 billion.

- Uttar Pradesh, with a projected population of 230 million people, is the country's most populated state, while Lakshadweep, with only 68,000 people, is the least populated.

- With 27.3% of its population aged between 15 and 29 years, India is among the youngest countries in the world.

- India is among the eight countries expected to be responsible for more than half the projected increase in global population upto 2050.

- The South Asian nation's annual population growth has averaged 1.2% since 2011, down from 1.7% in the previous 10 years.

- The use of family planning methods in India increased to 66.67% in 2019-21, up from 53.5% in 2015-16.

- India's total fertility rate - the number of children per woman - fell to 2 in 2019-2021, down from 3.4 in 1992-93.

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