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India forecasts 'below-normal' monsoon rainfall in 2026 as El Niño threatens agriculture
More than half of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rainfed, and almost half the nation’s population is dependent on agriculture for livelihood
- PUBLISHED: Tue 14 Apr 2026, 4:55 PM
India is likely to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall this monsoon season, M. Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, informed the media. This is the first time in 11 years that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below normal rainfall in its April forecast.
The forthcoming June-September monsoon season will see India receive 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of rain.
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Private weather forecaster Skymet has also forecast ‘below normal’ monsoons in India this year, with an expectation of 94 per cent of the LPA. Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather, told the media that El Nino is likely to be strong.
“As soon as it evolves, it’s likely to gain strength around July-end, August and September,” said Palawat, urging farmers to be prepared for the variations. “It’s best not to grow very water intensive crops.”
More than half of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40 per cent of production, is rainfed. And almost half the nation’s population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihood.
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Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, cited the likely development of the El Niño, the periodic warming of the Central Equatorial Pacific. The forecast based on both dynamical and statistical models suggest that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 92% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over India during 1971-2020 is 87cm, and a range of 96-104 per cent of this is normal, according to the IMD.
The department has been issuing operational long-range forecasts for the southwest monsoon in two stages; the first is in April and the second updated forecast is by the end of May. About five years ago, it modified the existing two forecast strategies by using both dynamical and statistical forecasting. In 2023, it had underestimated the actual rainfall when it forecast ‘near normal’.
Weak, La Nina-like conditions, the converse of an El Nino, are transitioning to neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific at present, said the IMD. The effects of El Nino are likely to come into full effect in the second half of the monsoon in August and September. Of the 16 times that the El Nino emerged since 1950, it has depressed the country’s monsoon rainfall nine times.
Mohapatra said the so-called ‘positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), which is likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon, is a positive sign, which could lower the El Nino impact. Another factor could be the below normal snow coverage in the northern hemisphere in the first quarter of 2026. This could also offset the negative El Nino effect. “We expect the El Nino impact to be more pronounced during the second half of monsoon and are not expecting much of an impact during June and July,” he added.
