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India forecasts below-normal July monsoon after driest June in over a decade
Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability
- PUBLISHED: Wed 1 Jul 2026, 4:02 PM
Rainfall in India in July, traditionally the wettest month of the monsoon season in the country, will be below normal at less than 94 per cent of the usual, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned.
This comes on the back of June having emerged as the driest in over a decade and the fifth-driest since records were maintained starting 1901.
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“Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability,” said the IMD.
“Such conditions may increase the risk of heat stress, and pressure on available water resources in several regions. To reduce potential impacts, timely planning and preparedness measures, including water conservation, efficient management of available water resources, and suitable agricultural contingency measures, may be considered by the concerned agencies and stakeholders.”
This year, June saw just 60 per cent of the normal rainfall, compared to 109 per cent last year. Many parts of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan have still to see regular rainfall this year, according to the IMD. The weak monsoon is linked to multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors.
“The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Nino conditions,” said the agency.
Many of India’s drought years (in 2002, 2009 and 2015) have coincided with the El Nino. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US had declared the onset of the El Niño on June 11 and warned it could continue into early 2027. The warming of central and eastern Pacific during El Nino weakens monsoon winds over India, resulting in a sharp fall in rains.
However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another ocean phenomenon, can check the negative effects of El Nino if it is positive. Japan’s meteorological agency has said a positive IOD is expected to develop this year, which could ease the damage caused by El Nino.
Despite the delayed onset of the monsoons, the IMD has warned of an increase in rainfall over Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra. A yellow alert has been declared for parts of the state for the next few days.
Airlines including Akasa Air and SpiceJet have issued warnings about the heavy rains in Mumbai. “Due to heavy rainfall in Mumbai, some flights across our network may be delayed,” it said in a release. It advised passengers to check the latest flight status before heading for the airport.
