Commentary: Safeguarding Strait of Hormuz is securing world’s ability to feed itself

[Editor's Note: Follow Khaleej Times' live blog for the latest regional developments with the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire now in effect.]

The author is president of UAE Safety and Emergency Security Association and professor of sustainable development at the American University of Sharjah. He is former UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment and former Minister of Infrastructure. He authored two books on climate change that influenced academic and international reforms.

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In the aftermath of the recent peace talks that succeeded in halting military escalation and reopened maritime corridors—the world has begun to breathe a cautious sigh of relief.

Yet beneath this welcome calm lies a deeper truth: The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has not ended; it has merely shifted from the realm of immediate danger to the realm of long‑term consequence. For while the guns have fallen silent, the shockwaves they produced continue to ripple through the global food system.

Throughout the crisis, global and regional media focused almost exclusively on oil and gas — rising prices, halted tankers, and the fragility of energy supply routes. This focus was understandable, but it masked a far more consequential dimension—one that persists even after the diplomatic breakthrough.

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The disruption of Hormuz did not only threaten energy markets; it struck at the very foundations of global agriculture. When a maritime artery as vital as the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, even temporarily, it is not only ships that stall, but the entire agricultural chain that depends on fertilizers, gas, and sulfur materials that flow through this narrow passage and sustain the world’s soil.

Crisis of soil chemistry

A professor of soil and agricultural sciences at the University of Reading—where my son is pursuing his doctoral studies—reminded me recently that what we witnessed was not merely a geopolitical crisis, but a crisis of soil chemistry.

Even now, after the ceasefire, the consequences continue to unfold. Nearly 30 per cent of global fertilizer trade, 50 per cent of the sulfur used in phosphate production, and 20 per ent of the liquefied natural gas essential for ammonia synthesis pass through Hormuz. A disruption of weeks is enough to disturb the chemical balance of soils across continents, with direct implications for crop quality and resilience.

Soil, though it appears stable, is a living system governed by a delicate equilibrium of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Any disturbance to this balance weakens plant growth and reduces tolerance to drought, salinity, and heat.

Studies show that a 25 per cent reduction in fertilizer availability can lower wheat quality by up to 20 per cent and reduce global maize yields by 10–15 per cent. These effects do not vanish with the signing of a peace agreement; they linger in the fields, in the harvests, and ultimately on the plates of millions.

Triple-shock

History offers examples of disruptions to global food systems, yet none combine the elements seen in the Hormuz crisis. The closure of the Suez Canal (1967–1975) disrupted trade but did not affect agricultural inputs. The 1973 oil crisis raised fertilizer costs but was not accompanied by a maritime blockade. The Russia–Ukraine war disrupted wheat and oilseed exports but did not strike at the soil itself. Even the fertilizer crisis of 2021–2022—described by the United Nations as a “silent famine”—remained an economic shock rather than a geopolitical one.

The Hormuz crisis stands apart because it delivered a triple-shock:

• disruption of a vital maritime corridor,

• interruption of agricultural inputs,

• and a surge in energy and transport costs.

This shock begins at the soil, moves to the farm, then to the markets, and finally to the most vulnerable nations. The United Nations warned that 45 million additional people could be pushed into hunger if such disruptions persist. The peace talks may have halted the escalation, but they cannot instantly reverse the structural vulnerabilities exposed by the crisis.

Farmers worldwide have already shifted their planting decisions. With fertilizer prices rising or supplies delayed, many turned to crops requiring fewer inputs—such as soybeans and barley—at the expense of wheat and maize. This shift, triggered by a temporary blockade, will shape global food supply chains for seasons to come. Import‑dependent nations now face higher prices, lower quality, and reduced access to global markets, even after the reopening of Hormuz.

In the Gulf region—where countries import between 55 per cent and 80 per cent of their food—the implications are especially acute. Yet the UAE, with its long‑standing experience in crisis management and its advanced institutional framework, has demonstrated a resilient model for food security.

Food security pillar

The UAE did not wait for crises to act; it built an integrated system that includes diversifying import sources, advancing smart agriculture, investing in biotechnology, establishing the Emirates Food Security Council, expanding strategic reserves, and strengthening international partnerships in food and water. This proactive vision has made food security a pillar of national security, reinforcing the conviction that protecting food begins with protecting the soil, and that resilience is built long before crises emerge.

The Hormuz crisis—now entering its post‑conflict phase—reminds the world that food security begins in the soil, not in the markets. It shows that maritime stability is not merely a political concern but a prerequisite for global nourishment.

In an era where geography intersects with economics, and where energy is inseparable from food, safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz becomes part of safeguarding the world’s ability to feed itself.

As for the UAE, it continues to advance its deliberate and forward‑looking vision: food security is not a reaction to crisis, but a national project—an investment in people, land, and technology.