China’s trade surplus surpasses $1 trillion for the first time

China's trade surplus topped $1 trillion for the first time as manufacturers seeking to avoid US President Donald Trump's tariffs shipped more to non-US markets in November, with exports to Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia surging.

Shipments to the United States dropped by close to one-third from the same month a year before.

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"The tariff cuts agreed under the US-China trade truce didn't help to lift shipments to the US last month, but overall export growth rebounded nonetheless," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. "We expect China's exports will remain resilient, with the country continuing to gain global market share next year."

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"The role of trade rerouting in offsetting the drag from US tariffs still appears to be increasing," she added.

Chinese exports overall grew 5.9 per cent year-on-year in November, customs data on Monday showed, a reversal from October's 1.1 per cent contraction and beating a 3.8 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll.

Imports were up 1.9 per cent, compared with a 1.0 per cent uptick in October. Economists had expected a 3.0 per cent increase.

China's trade surplus was $111.68 billion in November, the highest since June and up from $90.07 billion recorded the previous month. That was above a forecast of $100.2 billion.

China has stepped up efforts to diversify its export markets since Trump won November 2024's US election, pursuing closer trade ties with Southeast Asia and the European Union. It has also leveraged Chinese firms' global footprint to establish new production hubs for low tariff access.

Chinese shipments to the United States dropped 29 per cent year-on-year in November, while exports to the European Union grew an annual 14.8 per cent. Shipments to Australia surged 35.8 per cent, and the fast-growing Southeast Asian economies took in 8.2 per cent more goods over the same period.

Tumbling exports to the US came despite news that the world's two biggest economies had agreed to scale back some of their tariffs and a raft of other measures after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea on October 30.

The average US tariff on Chinese goods stands at 47.5 per cent, well above the 40% threshold that economists say erodes Chinese exporters' profit margins.

Key meetings eye amid US-China trade uncertainty

China's yuan firmed on Monday, off the back of the stronger-than-expected export data, with investors also awaiting policy signals from key year-end meetings.

The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, pledged on Monday to take steps to expand domestic demand, a shift analysts say is crucial for weaning the $19 trillion economy away from reliance on exports.

Economists estimate that diminished access to the US market since Trump returned to the White House has reduced China's export growth by roughly 2 percentage points, equivalent to around 0.3 per cent of GDP.

October's unexpected downturn, following an 8.3 per cent surge the month prior, signalled that Chinese exporters' tactic of front-loading U.S.-bound shipments to beat Trump's tariffs had run its course.

Although Chinese factory owners reported an improvement in new export orders in November, they were still in contraction, underscoring continued uncertainty for manufacturers as they struggle to replace demand in the absence of US buyers.