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Analysis: US-Iran peace deal gives Middle East 60-day test for lasting Gulf stability
No doubt, it is time to breathe a sigh of relief, rejoice, and celebrate pulling the region back from the brink of war. But the hard work begins now, said an analyst on Thursday
- PUBLISHED: Thu 18 Jun 2026, 12:17 PM UPDATED: Thu 18 Jun 2026, 12:39 PM
[Editor's Note: Follow Khaleej Times live blog for the latest regional developments after the signing of the US-Iran peace agreement]
The US-Iran interim peace deal signed on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian has offered the Middle East a rare opportunity to step back from the conflict, which had threatened one of the world's most strategic energy corridors
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Now, the critical 60-day test begins. The agreement, variously described as an accord, a framework deal, or the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), is expected to serve as the foundation for a broader and more comprehensive settlement, according to experts.
Analysts say the framework could lead to a genuinely inclusive, verifiable, and durable agreement by August or early September, provided the parties maintain momentum and demonstrate the political will needed to overcome remaining challenges.
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Dr Naveed Elahi, dean of National Institute of Public Policy, said the Islamabad MoU may well stand as the country’s most consequential foreign policy achievement and it can be termed Pakistan’s finest hour.
“No doubt it is a time to take a sigh of relief, rejoice and celebrate for pulling back the region from the brink of war. But the hard work begins now,” Dr Elahi told Khaleej Times on Thursday.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced an ‘immediate and permanent’ end to military operations between the United States and Iran, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled in Geneva on June 19, upon conclusion of the G7 summit. The global acknowledgement has been swift and warm — but tempered by hard realism.
Dr Elahi said the Islamabad MoU represents a temporary 60-day diplomatic framework that would pause selected restrictions rather than permanently remove sanctions, with Iran required to commit to never developing nuclear weapons and enter a 60-day negotiation aimed at a comprehensive nuclear agreement.
“The 60-day period is a slender thread upon which to hang permanent peace. Nevertheless, it appears that both the parties lack the appetite to go to war again, for their own different sets of reasons. Pakistan, ought to continue its relentless mediation, along with Türkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to keep the parties on track,” he said.
Focus on 60 days for enduring peace
Syed Muhammad Mehdi, founder and chairman, Institute of International Relations and Media Research, said it is difficult to state with confidence that the 60-day negotiations will necessarily culminate in a lasting peace agreement.
“While the preliminary accord and ceasefire represent a positive and encouraging development, several fundamental issues — ranging from Iran’s nuclear programme and economic sanctions to regional influence and broader security concerns — remain unresolved. This period presents a significant opportunity, but it should not be mistaken for a guarantee of enduring peace,” Mehdi told Khaleej Times.
He said the prospects for success certainly exist; however, the durability of any peace will ultimately depend on the extent to which both parties can reach mutually acceptable compromises on their most critical differences during the 60-day negotiation period.
Mehdi was of the view that a significant, behind-the-scenes channel has been the indirect negotiations facilitated by regional actors, in which Pakistan has repeatedly been described as playing a pivotal role —coordinating messages between Washington and Tehran at a time when direct trust between the two was notably fragile.
“This is important because peace efforts in their early stages almost invariably depend on ‘trusted intermediaries’ who can bridge divides that direct dialogue has yet to heal. This agreement could be an important step toward stability, but it does not automatically guarantee complete peace or lasting stability in the Gulf region,” he said.
“If we examine this entire US–Iran peace process, Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s roles appear less as direct signatories and more as strategic facilitators and key Gulf security stakeholders. Saudi Arabia remains present in the process as a political heavyweight, but it has not functioned as actively in a mediation capacity as Qatar.”
Mehdi said Qatar, on the other hand, has played a highly significant role. “It has not only affirmed its regional importance but is also likely to have its influence felt beyond the region. Despite all challenges, Qatar has maintained its utility as a diplomatic channel. This development is also expected to affect intra-Arab political dynamics,” he said.
Behind the scene efforts
Elabrating behind the scene efforts, Dr Elahi said the architecture was more multilateral than it appeared. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif specifically praised Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir for his sustained efforts, acknowledging there were moments when negotiations felt close to collapse.
“Qatar played a crucial behind-the-scenes role hosting contacts and conveying messages, while Saudi Arabia and Turkey provided complementary diplomatic support. On June 11, key gaps on frozen Iranian assets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear protocols were narrowed in talks between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators in Tehran, coordinated with Washington,” according to Dr Elahi.
“Yet a significant caveat looms. The Gulf states most dependent on Hormuz — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar — were not present in any of the three intermediary channels through which the framework was assembled. A peace architecture that excludes the region’s principal stakeholders risks being built on sand,” he said.
“Pakistan has earned its moment. Whether the Geneva signing translates into lasting Gulf stability depends on whether the 60-day window produces a genuinely inclusive, verifiable, and comprehensive agreement — or merely another fragile pause in a long confrontation. As they say live in optimism you may cry later,” he added.
