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UAE weather: Are winters getting warmer? Expert clarifies reasons behind temperature shift

The lowest temperature recorded this year so far was a relatively mild 1.9°C on January 4 at 5 am in Jebel Jais

Published: Wed 5 Feb 2025, 6:00 AM

Updated: Wed 5 Feb 2025, 9:13 PM

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Image used for illustrative purpose. Photo: File

Image used for illustrative purpose. Photo: File

The UAE is witnessing warmer winters this year, with changes in the pressure system being a key factor, according to a climate expert at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

Notably, temperatures in the UAE hit a record low of -5.7°C on February 3, 2017, at Jebel Jais, the country's highest peak.

The next lowest temperature recorded that year was just a day later, on February 4, when the mercury dipped to -3°C in the same mountain range.

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In stark contrast, the lowest temperature recorded this year so far was a relatively mild 1.9°C on January 4 at 5 am in Jebel Jais, following closely behind a reading of 2.2°C on January 3.

How air mass from polar region impacts UAE

In an interview with Khaleej Times on Tuesday, Dr Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the NCM explained the reasons behind this temperature shift.

He attributed the warmer conditions to several climatic factors, including the expansion of a high-pressure system over Siberia, which impacts the UAE and the wider Arabian Peninsula.

Habib said, “Rainfall, temperature, and wind are influenced by the pressure system, which brings air masses from different regions to our country. In 2017, the situation was different — an air mass from the polar region, moving toward northern Saudi Arabia, directly affected the UAE.”

Habib added, “This year, however, we do not have the same pressure system or its typical distribution, meaning the same air mass is not impacting us. Instead, a different cold air mass is affecting our region. While temperatures haven’t dropped to zero, they have reached around 1.6°C to 1.7°C. The difference in the pressure system explains these variations.”

Changes in pressure system affect rainfall

The UAE's winter is typically marked by clear skies, occasional rainfall, and a surge in outdoor activities, attracting both tourists and residents. Moreover, the climate analyst emphasised that the rainfall has been lower this year, attributed to the change in the pressure systems.

Additionally, a series of low-pressure systems moving from west to east and the occasional extension of the Red Sea trough contribute to cloud development and sporadic rainfall.

“On the night of February 7 and early February 8, cloud cover is expected in northern Ras Al Khaimah and eastern Fujairah, particularly in the far north and east. Temperatures will begin to rise starting Wednesday, but a drop of 2 to 5 degrees is expected from Friday, February 7.”

Habib added, “Last year, February saw significant rainfall, including hailstorms in the UAE.” This was reportedly the strongest hailstorm Al Ain had seen in 40 years. “However, the pressure system affecting our region this year is different.”

Temperature to rise over the next couple of days

He explained that the pressure systems vary from year to year and even from day to day. “Temperature distribution over land and sea influences pressure changes, which in turn affect air mass movement. Typically, air masses move from high-pressure to low-pressure areas. Sometimes, this results in air masses from the north reaching our region, depending on the prevailing high-pressure conditions.”

Meanwhile, he also highlighted that the winter months in the UAE that spans from January to March are generally unstable, with frequent weather fluctuations due to these pressure system changes.

“Cloud cover is expected over northern Ras Al Khaimah and eastern Fujairah on the night of Friday, February 7 and early Saturday, February 8. Temperatures will begin to rise from Wednesday, before dropping by 2°C-5°C from coming Friday,” added Habib.

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