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Hotter than usual summer in 2026: How El Niño could impact UAE temperatures
Climate models hint at one of the strongest El Niño events on record, raising hopes of heavier rainfall but also concerns over weather extremes
- PUBLISHED: Tue 16 Jun 2026, 2:53 PM
A potentially strong El Niño event forecast for later this year is drawing close attention from meteorologists, with climate models suggesting it could intensify into one of the more powerful events in recent decades, raising questions about its possible impact on global weather patterns, including in the UAE.
At the same time, climate outlooks for the region already point to a hotter-than-usual summer in 2026, with early indicators showing temperatures rising faster than seasonal averages across the UAE and wider Gulf. Meteorologists say this early heat buildup aligns with broader global climate signals, including the possible development of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, which can influence temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide.
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El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. Although the process occurs thousands of kilometres away, it can disrupt atmospheric circulation and shift weather systems across the globe, affecting regions far beyond the Pacific basin.
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Experts say the phenomenon can produce contrasting impacts depending on geography. In some regions, it is associated with prolonged dry spells and drought, while in others it enhances rainfall and increases the likelihood of storms and unusual weather events.
Meteorological records show that the last major El Niño events occurred in 1997-98 and 2015-16, both considered among the strongest on record. During those events, sea surface temperature anomalies reached approximately 2.3°C in 1997 and around 2.6°C in 2015, contributing to widespread global weather disruptions.
Now, climate models suggest that El Niño conditions could begin strengthening between August and December 2026, with some projections indicating that sea surface temperature anomalies could exceed 3°C. If realised, this would place the event in the category often referred to by scientists as a potential “Super El Niño”.
While such projections remain uncertain and subject to change, the intensity of some model outputs has prompted closer global monitoring from climate centres, which are tracking Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies and atmospheric shifts in real time.
In the UAE, weather observers are closely watching whether the developing pattern could influence seasonal rainfall activity or temperature trends across the region. Although El Niño is not a direct driver of local weather, it can influence broader atmospheric conditions that interact with regional systems affecting the Arabian Peninsula.
Recent climate assessments have also pointed towards a warmer seasonal outlook for the UAE in 2026, with meteorological experts warning that heat may arrive earlier and persist longer than usual. While El Niño does not directly cause heat in the Gulf, it can contribute to background global warming patterns that amplify temperature extremes when combined with regional climate systems.
For the region, the potential impact remains complex. El Niño does not guarantee increased rainfall in the UAE, and outcomes depend heavily on how global and regional atmospheric systems align. In some cases, it can lead to enhanced rainfall in certain seasons, while in others it may result in drier conditions and increased variability.
Meteorologists caution that it is still too early to determine the strength or exact influence of any developing El Niño event in 2026, with forecasts expected to evolve over the coming months as ocean-atmosphere conditions continue to develop.
Arwa Almazrouei is an Arabic editor passionate about storytelling and journalism, and creating impactful content that highlights culture, society, and the inspirational.