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UAE could see above-average rain from October as El Niño strengthens
Meteorologists caution that El Niño alone does not mean extreme rain or flooding, with local pressure systems and atmospheric conditions determining UAE’s weather
- PUBLISHED: Thu 17 Sept 2026, 6:00 AM UPDATED: Mon 28 Sept 2026, 1:40 PM
Some long-range weather models are pointing to above-average rainfall in the UAE in the coming months, from October through January, as the country moves into its cooler and wetter season, a National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) expert has said.
But residents should not interpret the forecast as a warning of extreme storms or flooding linked directly to El Niño, Ahmed Habib, meteorologist at the NCM, told Khaleej Times. While some models indicate wetter-than-average conditions, the actual amount of rain remains uncertain.
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"Some models indicate that rainfall will be higher than average in the coming months, from October and November until January," Habib noted. "But nobody can give the exact amount with certainty."
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The clarification comes as interest grows around this year’s El Niño, a climate pattern involving unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can influence weather patterns around the world, but its presence does not automatically translate into extreme weather in a particular country.
The NCM, in a clarification issued on September 11, described this year’s El Niño as “very strong” and said it is considered an indicator of beneficial rainfall. However, it noted that such rainfall could at times be accompanied by heavy rain if suitable weather conditions develop over the UAE.
El Niño does not directly mean UAE floods
For UAE residents, the distinction is important: El Niño is a global climate signal, while the weather experienced locally depends on atmospheric conditions developing over the region.
Habib said El Niño does not directly affect the UAE in isolation. Instead, its influence can be felt through wider changes in atmospheric circulation, with the eventual impact varying from one region to another.
"El Niño is not affecting the UAE [directly]. It's a climate phenomenon, which means the entire world will be affected — maybe East Asia, Europe, or America," Habib said.
Historical weather records also show that El Niño has occurred during some periods and been absent during others, he said.
The NCM has also sought to counter viral social media posts warning residents of severe flooding or unusually heavy rainfall as a direct consequence of El Niño.
Residents have been urged to rely on official NCM forecasts and warnings rather than social media claims when assessing the risk of rain or severe weather.
Local conditions will decide how much rain falls
While the global climate pattern can influence atmospheric circulation, local weather systems ultimately determine whether rain-producing conditions develop over the UAE.
For significant rainfall to occur, several atmospheric ingredients need to come together, including moisture, water vapour, surface and upper-air temperatures and suitable pressure systems.
Habib explained that atmospheric features such as “Rossby waves” can influence where weather systems and heavy rainfall develop.
“Where [extreme weather happens], nobody knows right now, because that will be determined by the pressure system. Maybe over the Middle East, but which country, nobody knows — maybe in the Northern Gulf or elsewhere," he said.
This means that even with a strong El Niño underway, there is no basis for predicting a specific UAE weather event simply from the climate pattern itself.
“At the moment, El Niño is active in the ocean, but the pressure system in our area is not leading to extreme weather conditions,” Habib said.
Conditions can change as the season progresses, however, which is why long-range indications of wetter-than-average conditions should be treated separately from short-term forecasts.
For now, UAE residents can expect the usual gradual transition towards autumn, with temperatures remaining high before easing later in the season. Habib said, "Daytime temperatures could still reach 44°C to 46°C, while increasing nighttime humidity could raise the likelihood of fog or mist, particularly in coastal areas."
