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UAE weather: Summer heat arrives early, warmer season expected this year
What's behind the rising temperatures across the region? Discover how El Niño and the Indian monsoon system are influencing the heat
- PUBLISHED: Wed 3 Jun 2026, 6:00 AM UPDATED: Fri 5 Jun 2026, 4:47 PM
Summer in the UAE is expected to be hotter this year compared to previous years, according to a veteran meteorologist at the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM), who also noted that “actual temperatures will still depend on the weather systems affecting the region at any given time".
In an interview to Khaleej Times on Tuesday, June 2, Dr Ahmed Habib, a weather expert at the NCM, explained that across the UAE, citizens and residents are already feeling the intensity of early summer, as the country gradually shifts into peak heat much earlier than usual this year.
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He stressed that the transition is not unusual and is linked to shifting regional weather patterns.
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What is the El Niño phenomenon?
“If we look at the broader regional pattern, not just the UAE, we are currently under the influence of the El Niño phenomenon. One of El Niño's characteristics is higher temperatures. If hot air masses move over the UAE, temperatures will rise further.
In general, though, the wider region is expected to be warmer than in previous years due to the influence of El Niño,” he added.
Habib stressed that this shift is not unexpected for the region’s climate cycle, pointing to current temperature trends as a clear signal of seasonal transition.
“Summer officially begins on June 21, but in our region, summer-like conditions may arrive earlier. This is not unusual. The average temperatures we are recording now are similar to those typically seen during summer, so the UAE is effectively entering the season a little ahead of schedule.”
“This is a prognostic indication of the start of summer," he added.
Monsoon system driving extreme daytime temperatures
The rising heat is being driven by broader regional weather systems, including the influence of the Indian monsoon. A thermal low linked to the system is pushing hot air masses towards the southern parts of the UAE, driving daytime temperatures sharply higher.
“Currently, our region is being influenced by the Indian monsoon system… That is why we are seeing temperatures reaching 47°C to 48°C. Considering all these factors, we can say that we are already experiencing summer conditions," Habib explained.
Despite the intense heat, the atmosphere remains extremely dry. Meteorologists say northwesterly winds are bringing in dry desert air, limiting cloud formation and keeping rainfall away from the country.
“There are no signs of rainfall over the UAE this week or next week.”
Why rain remains limited despite seasonal patterns
While summer rain is not uncommon in the UAE — particularly in eastern and mountainous regions — conditions this week are not supportive of cloud formation. Typically, moisture from the Oman Sea can rise over the mountains, triggering cloud development through the orographic effect (when air is forced upward over terrain, forming clouds and rain).
However, current wind patterns are preventing that process.
“Right now, however, northwesterly winds are blowing in from the desert and western regions, bringing dry air. This limits cloud formation and reduces the likelihood of rainfall.”
Rainfall window
Habib noted that the main summer rainfall window usually falls between mid-July and mid-August. “During this period, convective clouds often develop over eastern parts of the UAE and sometimes over the Liwa region. This happens as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts northward, allowing moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Oman Sea to move into the UAE, helping clouds to develop and bringing rainfall to some areas,” he added.
