Why UAE remains unaffected by Ethiopia's volcanic eruption

As a major volcanic eruption overseas continues to disrupt air traffic and send ash drifting across parts of East Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia, forecasters in the UAE have confirmed that the country remains well outside the danger zone — thanks to a different set of atmospheric systems currently steering regional weather.

The long-dormant Hayli Gubbi volcano, located in northern Ethiopia's Afar region, erupted for the first time in over 12,000 years on Sunday morning. The eruption sent ash clouds across nearby villages and out toward the Red Sea.

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Satellite images show ash rising as high as 14 kilometers into the sky, drifting westward. This is the first known eruption of Hayli Gubbi during the Holocene period, which began more than a dozen thousand years ago.

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Insulated by dominant wind patterns

Speaking to Khaleej Times, Dr Ahmed Habib, meteorologist at the National Center of Meteorology (NCM), explained that despite global concern over the widespread movement of ash from the eruption, the weather specialist confirmed that the UAE is not on the ash trajectory.

“The ash plume has been tracked moving from Ethiopia across parts of Oman, then over the Arabian Sea south of Oman, before continuing northward toward India's western coast and onward toward China,” the forecaster explained. “Our region is not affected.”

He attributed this to the dominant wind patterns currently controlling the region. “At the upper levels of the atmosphere, we have an extension of low pressure coming from the north that drives westerly winds from West to East,” he said. “These winds carry the ash along a corridor stretching from Yemen and the Arabian Sea toward India and China — not toward the UAE.”

What are the two converging low-pressure systems?

Currently, the UAE is under the influence of two converging low-pressure systems — one extending from Saudi Arabia in the upper atmosphere and another advancing from the south until November 29. “These systems are driving our local weather and encouraging cloud formation over the UAE and eastern parts of Saudi Arabia,” he said. “We expect rainfall starting offshore in the west, moving gradually toward the coastal areas between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and then spreading inland. By Thursday, the eastern part of the UAE may see the impact.”

Over the coming days, scattered rainfall is expected across coastal, northern and eastern parts of the country, accompanied by a noticeable drop in temperatures. “Nights (especially) will turn cold — especially in areas like Al Ain and Liwa, where it may drop to around 10°C. Along the coast, it will range between 22°C and 17°C.”

Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah are expected to remain generally cloudy, with only light drizzle in some coastal pockets. “The better chances of rainfall will be in the north, including Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah,” he said. “Overall, it will stay cloudy across the UAE.”

Nandini Sircar

nandini@khaleejtimes.com

Nandini Sircar has a penchant for education, space, and women's narratives. She views the world through a prism of learning: whether it's the earthly pursuit of wisdom or the unearthly mysteries of space. In her written universe, women and children take centre stage.